PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 2:57 AM EDT854
FXUS61 KPBZ 290657
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
257 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Update to Key Messages.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light rain/drizzle possible tonight into tomorrow morning
with cold front.
2) Better chances of a wetting rain arrive late next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Outside of valley fog this morning, quiet and dry weather will
persist through sunset under high pressure.
A cold front currently moving across the Great Lakes will
continue advancing into the Ohio River Valley over the next 24
hours. Limited moisture along the boundary will keep
precipitation chances low, with only spotty light rain early
Friday morning. Rainfall amounts will generally range from a
trace to a tenth of an inch north of I-70 and along the ridges.
Drier conditions will return late Friday morning, although
clouds may linger. Despite the frontal passage, temperatures
will remain slightly above average.
A weak disturbance is expected to move through the region late
Sunday into Monday. However, weak forcing and limited moisture
should keep rainfall totals below 0.25 inches.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the development of a
closed 500-mb low over the central CONUS Tuesday into Wednesday,
with the potential for the system to eject northeastward toward
the Great Lakes thereafter. Considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the track and strength of this disturbance late into
the week. If the system tracks near the region, wetting rainfall
and breezy conditions would be the most likely impacts. However,
the overall risk of flooding remains low, with the probabilities
below 30%, given our recent dry stretch.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clear and calm conditions will likely prompt river valley fog
early Thursday morning, mainly between 08Z and 12Z. VFR
conditions are likely after sunrise, winds will be light from
the south.
The probability of cig restrictions and very light rain/drizzle
increases early Friday morning with a passing cold front. FKL
and DUJ are expected to be impacted first. Cigs are expected to
drop to MVFR (ranging between 2500ft to 1500ft). However, there
could be a brief period of IFR cigs before sunrise on Friday.
Sites south of BVI could hold onto VFR cigs if low-level
moisture fizzles out as the front tracks south.
Outlook...
Light rain could return late Sunday into Monday with large-
scale disturbance.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Hefferan
AVIATION...Hefferan
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 29, 2:57 AM EDT---------------
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