BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 2:45 PM EDT558
FXUS61 KBOX 271845
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
245 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extended the time of the Small Craft Advisory
for the eastern waters to 18z today. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather will persist through the weekend. Warmer
temperatures return for Thursday and Friday with gusty winds
on Friday. Seasonable temperatures return for weekend.
- Transition to a more unsettled weather pattern by early next
week, bringing periodic chances for rain. However, confidence
in specific timing remains low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will persist through the weekend. Warmer
temperatures return for Thursday and Friday with gusty winds on
Friday. Seasonable temperatures return for weekend.
Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate favoring
mainly dry conditions through the weekend. Clear skies will favor
cool nights with likely the coolest night being tonight. A cooler
airmass in place combined with light winds and mainly clear skies
will favor efficient radiational cooling tonight. Temperatures are
likely to fall into the 20s and 30s with the higher terrain,
valleys, and usual radiator spots most favored for lows in the mid-
upper 20s. Can't rule out a few spots in the interior dropping into
the low 20s.
Dry and seasonably cool temperatures persist into Wednesday.
Temperatures aloft trend a little warmer as a mid-level ridge
shifts east which may nudge highs a few degrees warmer than
Tuesday. The warming trend in temperatures continues into late-
week resulting in 925mb temperatures warming to +11 to +14C.
This will yield high temperatures in the mid-60s on Thursday
alongside breezy NW winds. Despite the mid-level zonal flow
Friday (ahead of our next weak wave), the westerly flow will
support efficient mixing in the boundary layer. This will result
in a gusty/windier day and likely the warmest day of the week
with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. NBM
continues to highlight probabilities 50-75%+ for temperatures
70F or greater with the highest probabilities for the valleys
and I-95 metros. This is reasonable given the added factor of
the warming downslope flow. A mild late-October day is looking
likely.
Another moisture-starved shortwave and cold front moves overnight
Friday. This will shift temperatures back into the low 60s for the
weekend which is seasonable for late-October.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Transition to a more unsettled weather pattern by
early next week bringing periodic chances for rain. Confidence
in specific timing remains low.
Looking ahead to next week, ensemble guidance shows agreement
with a transition to a unsettled weather pattern. This will
feature series of shortwave troughs bringing periodic chances
for rain. However, there is still a fair amount of spread
across guidance in the details of the pattern including details
of the pattern which has reduced confidence in the timing of
rain chances through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update...
Today and Tonight...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Northerly component winds for most of the
terminals for the rest of the afternoon at 5-8 kts. E/ESE at BOS
and NE for the Cape/Islands terminals. Occasional gusts to 18
kts possible for HYA/ACK through the evening. Winds diminish to
very light/calm levels shortly after sunset tonight.
Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR conditions. Light wind patterns continue. Generally out of
the N in the morning less than 6 kts then transitioning to SW in
the afternoon after a period of more VRB winds. SSE winds
possible at BOS for a period in the afternoon before becoming
SW late afternoon/evening.
KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night through Sunday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday...High confidence.
NE winds this afternoon at 9-15 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts
possible across the outer waters. Seas 2-5 ft with 5 ft seas
confined to the outermost waters. Winds/seas continue to
decrease this tonight with high pressure overhead. Light winds
and seas 1-3 ft for Wednesday as high pressure persists across
the coastal waters.
Outlook /Wednesday through Sunday/...
Wednesday through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mensch
AVIATION...Mensch
MARINE...Mensch
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 2:45 PM EDT----------------
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