IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:14 AM EDT403
FXUS63 KIND 271014
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
614 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and unseasonably high temperatures to continue through Friday,
afternoon highs in the 70s
- Patchy fog may occur in low lying areas late night/early mornings
- A wetter pattern may take shape for the Halloween weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure
centered over Ontario. This large high was extending its influence
south, across Indiana and through the Ohio Valley to the deep south.
Aloft, water vapor showed a ridge axis extending north across
Indiana and the Great Lakes, while an upper trough was found over OK
and Central TX. Water Vapor showed a plume of moisture streaming
north across the southern plains to the middle Mississippi Valley
streaming northward. Dew points across Indiana ranged from the
middle 40s to around 50.
Today through Wednesday...
The strong surface high to the north is expected to slide southeast
today and Wednesday reaching east of New England by Wednesday, all
while continuing to maintain control over Indiana/s weather. Warmer
southerly return flow is expected today and again on Wednesday.
Meanwhile aloft, the ridge axis aloft will also quickly depart east
allowing the plains trough to push across Indiana tonight. This will
be followed by another weak ridge for Wednesday. Forecast soundings
through Wednesday show a continued dry column, with little overall
change in the airmass.
Given GOES19 trends, mostly sunny skies will be expected this
morning, but passing high and mid clouds as seen over the mid
Mississippi valley will be expected to pass through the afternoon as
the upper flow progresses. This will bring some partly cloudy skies
this afternoon.
More sunshine will be expected on Wednesday as the second ridge axis
arrives providing subsidence.
Thursday...
A dry and even warmer day is expected on Thursday. A cold front
pushing across the Great Lakes will provide SW flow across Indiana
through the day on Thursday as models suggest a thermal ridge to be
in place across the state. Best forcing and moisture with this front
will remain well to the northeast, across the eastern Great Lakes.
Thus we will expect partly cloudy skies with warm SW winds. This
should allow highs to reach the upper 70s.
Friday...
Dry weather will be expected on Friday as strong ridging aloft will
remain over Indiana, Illinois and Iowa. Resultant surface high
pressure is expected over the Great Lakes drifting through the
southeast. Forecast soundings through the day show mainly a dry
column. Thus dry weather is expected with continued above normal
temperatures.
Saturday through Monday...
A wetter period is expected on Saturday through Monday. The upper
flow is expected to become more southwesterly across the CONUS as a
deep upper low begins to dig southeast into the northwestern states.
This will bring a progressive flow across the American southwest,
across the plains and to the Ohio valley. Embedded forcing dynamics
amid the flow and a short wave will push toward and across Central
Indiana on Saturday through Sunday Night. Within the lower levels
strong high pressure will be found across the middle Atlantic states
while low pressure over the southern plains pushes towards Indiana
on Saturday and across the state on Sunday. This should set up a
steady stream of moisture into the Ohio Valley. Another warm front
looks to push toward Indiana on Monday. Forecast soundings through
this period show periods of deep saturation with pwats around 1.25
inches. These are some of the higher values than we have seen in
recent weeks. Thus mid to high pops will be used, with the best
chances on Saturday night into Sunday. Due to the cloud cover and
precipitation during the period, expect lows in the 50s, but highs
mainly reaching only the mid to upper 60s. Normal high temperatures
for this time of year is in the upper 50s.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 614 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026
Impacts:
- Any morning IFR/MVFR Fog will quickly burn off after sunrise.
Discussion:
Strong surface high pressure stretching from Ontario through the
Ohio Valley to the deep south will continue to provide dry weather
fro Central Indiana today. Morning fog will quickly dissipate as
heating and mixing begins after sunrise.
GOES19 shows high clouds streaming toward Indiana from the central
Plains. Expect high VFR cigs as these cloud pass today and tonight.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 27, 6:14 AM EDT---------------
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