JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 7:23 PM EDT138
FXUS63 KJKL 232323
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
723 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather persists into next week, with clear skies, mild
days, and chilly nights expected.
- Light, patchy frost may develop late tonight and again on
Saturday and Sunday nights in sheltered valleys away from lakes,
rivers, and larger creeks. Fog is more likely near those bodies
of water.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
With afternoon dew points dipping lower than was expected over the
southwest portion of the forecast area, and models supporting
continued somewhat drier low levels there overnight, have lowered
tonight's forecast min temps there slightly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
This afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over the
Southern Plains/western Gulf area and extended into the mid MS
Valley to western Great Lakes, with ridging also extending into
the OH Valley. Meanwhile, an upper trough extended from east of
the eastern seaboard to eastern sections of the Gulf. At the sfc,
an area of high pressure centered in Quebec extended south and
into the eastern Conus. Clear skies were occurring across the OH
Valley region and eastern KY as of mid afternoon, with dewpoints
in the mid 30s across the south to 40s in the north.
Tonight and Saturday, a gradual trend of 500 mb height rises is
expected across eastern KY, with the upper level ridge axis
remaining from sections of TX/western Gulf into the mid MS Valley
to Great Lakes. At the same time, the sfc high will become
centered over the Northeast to mid Atlantic states and extend
across much of the eastern Conus to the Gulf. The upper ridge axis
per the consensus of guidance will remain west of eastern KY from
the western Gulf to the mid MS Valley to southern Great Lakes for
Saturday night, while the associated sfc ridge of high pressure
extends from the mid Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians and
Southeast Conus.
The pattern will favor ridge/valley temperature splits/nocturnal
valley inversions the next two nights. Valley locations should
continue to reach mainly the upper 30s, while ridgetop locations
settle into the mid 40s. Valley fog should develop each night as
well, mainly along the larger bodies of such as rivers, larger
creeks, and area lakes. Colder sheltered valleys/hollows away from
the larger bodies of water could experience patchy frost tonight
and/or Saturday night. Daytime highs for Saturday will be similar
to today, mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
Amplified upper ridging over the Mississippi and Ohio River
Valleys Sunday and Monday will gradually weaken and get shunted
south and east of the area, opening eastern Kentucky to more
westerly and/or west- southwesterly flow aloft mid to late next
week. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control through
much if not all of the period. A cold front may move into the
Midwest and Great Lakes region by Wednesday and Thursday of next
week, allowing for surface winds to increase out of the south to
southwesterly, though wind speeds would remain light.
Sunny/clear skies and dry weather is expected through the period
with mild days and cool, if not chilly, nights, with valley fog
through the river valleys and patchy frost (at least for Sunday
night and perhaps Monday night) in some sheltered valley
locations removed from larger bodies of water. The one potential
exception is around the middle of next week (i.e., Tuesday night
through Wednesday) when most models depict a weakening shortwave
crossing the area, bringing an increase in clouds. Such a scenario
would likely bring warmer overnight lows and reduce ridge/valley
splits in temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
Fog will bring IFR or worse conditions in some valley locations
overnight and early Saturday, mainly near lakes, rivers, and
large streams. KSYM has been affected by MVFR conditions around
dawn in recent days, and with slightly higher low level moisture
in our northern counties compared to recent days, have included
some impacts there. Otherwise, VFR conditions with clear skies and
light winds will prevail during the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 7:23 PM EDT---------------
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