JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:56 AM EDT366
FXUS63 KJKL 230556
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
156 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mainly clear skies, mild days, and chilly
nights will persist well into next week.
- Light, patchy frost may develop tonight and again late Friday
night in valleys away from lakes, rivers, and larger creeks.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
For tonight, colder low temperatures in the upper 30s were
expanded over a little bit larger area outside of the deep
valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 212 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
Northerly flow aloft will continue through Saturday morning on the
downstream side of a highly amplified upper ridge over the Central
US. At the surface, a dry cold front (essentially just a
refresh of the air mass) moves across eastern Kentucky overnight
tonight, with surface high pressure remaining in control through
Saturday morning.
Subtle low-level mixing in association with the dry cold front
passage tonight may keep widespread valley fog confined to the
deeper river valleys and hollows. Otherwise, the renewed cold
advection will keep lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Patchy
frost is possible, but again will be localized to the deeper hollows
where fog does not develop, typically away from the river valleys.
Sunny and dry conditions are expected Friday with a light east to
northeast wind with the cold advection behind the front. The
increased mixing will offset the slightly cooler air mass, and
result in high temperatures similar to today's in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.
Light northeast to southeast breezes continue into Friday night and
Saturday morning under continued high pressure, with good
radiational cooling and associated decoupling in the valleys
resulting in more widespread river valley fog compared to tonight.
Ridgetop temperatures will climb a few degrees into the 40s but
valleys will remain in the mid to upper 30s. Patchy frost will be
possible in the deeper valleys where fog does not occur.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
A blocky pattern will still hold at the start of the long term
period, with an expansive and amplified midlevel ridge over the
center of the country. To the west of the ridge, troughing
associated with a closed low initially located over California
will have little ability to progress east through early next week,
when this disturbance lifts north and finally begins to flatten
the ridge. With this pattern in place, local conditions will vary
little from day to day through Tuesday as surface high pressure
remains nearby.
Through Tuesday, weather should remain sunny as high pressure
dominates. Each afternoon, temperatures will rise to near or
slightly above average for this time of year, with highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday does look to be the warmest day of
the period, as the ridge expands east somewhat and 500 mb heights
peak in roughly the 90th percentile compared to climatology. Even
so, temperatures should remain mild, perhaps peaking in the mid
70s at most. Troughing off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend
will prevent any eastward progression of this ridge, keeping
eastern Kentucky firmly east of the ridge axis, and by extension,
the highest geopotential heights. By Monday the ridge will begin
flattening, with high temperatures falling a degree or two.
Accompanying these pleasant temperatures will be plenty of
sunshine. Skies should be nearly clear through the weekend, with
just a slight uptick in upper level moisture by early next week as
flow aloft begins to shift more westerly. With such dry air just
above the surface, NBM dewpoints are almost certainly overdone,
particularly in the afternoon hours. Thus, dewpoints were nudged
down into the low and mid 40s, much more in line with ensemble
guidance. Overnight, this dry air, in addition to clear skies and
a weak pressure gradient, should allow for efficient radiational
cooling. This will set the stage for ridge valley splits as
valleys fall into the upper 30s and ridgetop lows remain in the
low 40s through early next week.
By Tuesday, flow aloft will become more southwesterly as the ridge
finally breaks down and troughing begins to dig into the central
CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low will progress across the Midwest,
with a weak and poorly defined cold front extending to the
southwest of this system. This front will attempt to sag toward
our area somewhat, but with limited upper level support, it should
lose steam and become more diffuse with time, and is not expected
to make it to the Commonwealth. Thus, the forecast still remains
dry, with the main change being a slight increase in cloud cover
and highs cooling by a degree or two.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
Fog will bring IFR or worse conditions in some valley locations
through mid-morning, mainly near lakes, rivers, and large
streams. KSYM was affected by mainly MVFR conditions for a few
hours around dawn for the last couple of days, and the TAF has
allowed for a potential for this again. Although KSME dropped to
IFR or worse for about an hour yesterday morning, confidence in a
repeat is not high enough to include it in the TAF. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds will prevail
during the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON/HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 23, 1:56 AM EDT---------------
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