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391 FXUS64 KLIX 190507AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026- Conditions will remain favorable for the spread of any fires through the remainder of this week due to low humidity and drought/abnormally dry conditions across most of the area. - Conditions will remain hazardous to small craft across most coastal waters in southeastern Louisiana and Mississippi due to moderate to strong winds and high waves/choppy to rough seas. Small craft advisories and/or exercise caution headlines will remain in place through at least Tuesday morning for most coastal waters.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Thursday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026The broad picture is sfc high pressure over the east coast withlow pressure over the southern gulf and adjacent landmass. Thislower pressure is where the old front has stalled deep into thesouthern gulf. The gradient between these two features is stillrather tight. This has been and will continue to keep wind speedsmoderate to high over the northern gulf. Some fluctuations inthese winds speeds shifting north and/or southward from time totime will be the thing to watch over the next few days. One ofthose shifts come later today into Tuesday which is why marineheadlines have been shifted north. The overall gradient willweaken as time moves along, but will be slow and should allowthese headlines to lower through the day Tue and possibly drop byWed. Inland, a light breeze will be maintained through Tue,eventually becoming light and variable Wed and Thu. No rainexpected during this period but temps will warm with each day backinto the 80s Tue and mid 80s Thu.&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026Upper level troughs will extend from near Savannah to the Yucatan Peninsula, and over the Intermountain West, with ridging from Texas to Minnesota on Thursday night. The ridging will be centered near the Louisiana coast by next Sunday evening. This pattern should keep surface high pressure across the area next weekend. A general easterly flow is expected at the lower levels, and see no real influx of moisture at any level. In fact, there may not be a true onshore flow until Halloween weekend. Forecast precipitable water values never get above an inch through next weekend, with most values near or below the 25th percentile (0.83 inches). Dew points aren't likely to even reach 60 degrees until perhaps next Sunday. See no indications that we will need to mention any precipitation in next weekend's forecast with the possible exceptions of the outer coastal waters. Temperature-wise, the warming trend from earlier in the week will continue as the continental airmass gradually modifies beneath the ridge. Highs will generally reach the mid 80s across the area Friday through the weekend, with some locations around Baton Rouge potentially approaching 90 degrees. That's probably the upper end though, as the 90th percentile at Baton Rouge at the end of the week is 89. Areas closer to the coast should remain slightly cooler in the upper 70s and low 80s due to the marine influence. With plenty of sunshine and relatively dry air still in place, expect some rather large diurnal temperature ranges, especially across southwest Mississippi and the Florida Parishes. Overnight lows should generally fall into the low to mid 50s across the inland portions of the area, with upper 50s and low 60s closer to the coast and southshore.&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026VFR through this cycle.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026Winds will continue to gradually ease with directions ranging from northeasterly to easterly through at least midweek. Wind speeds will remain elevated, so advisory and exercise caution headlines will remain necessary across most coastal waters through at least today. Across the open Gulf waters, winds and seas may remain elevated into midweek with additional headline time extensions possible. By late in the week conditions should become more benign with winds and seas easing below headline criteria across all waters.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ551-553-554- 570-572-575-577.MS...None.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ553-554-570- 572-575-577.&&$$SHORT TERM...TELONG TERM....RWAVIATION...TEMARINE...TE
