JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 9:34 PM EDT360
FXUS63 KJKL 200134
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
934 PM EDT Mon Oct 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A light, mainly patchy, frost is possible again tonight and
Tuesday night, primarily in sheltered valleys away from lakes,
rivers, and larger creeks.
- Expect near-normal temperatures throughout the work week, with
mostly clear skies and overnight ridge-valley temperature splits
likely to continue through at least next weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
High pressure was in place across the OH Valley and Commonwealth
this evening. This was leading to light and variable winds.
Temperatures in valleys have dropped off into the mid to upper 40s
on average thus far, with temperatures generally in the low to mid
50s elsewhere. Forecast lows for tonight remain on track and only
some adjustments of hourly temperatures toward observations were
made at this time. Valley fog, mainly along the rivers and larger
tributary creeks, should again develop overnight, while patchy
frost remains possible for the sheltered rural valleys/typical
cold spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 307 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
Bright sunshine prevails across eastern Kentucky this afternoon with
temperatures ranging from the mid 60s over the ridges to around 70F
in the warmest valleys. There is not a cloud to be seen for hundreds
of miles around eastern Kentucky. Not only is it dry aloft, dew
points at the surface range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s, yielding
RH values in the 30 to 40 percent range for most places - very
comfortable. This delightful mid-autumn weather is courtesy of an
~1030 mb surface high centered over the Upper Ohio Valley (there
is a second center over the Minnesota Arrowhead). That expansive
surface high is supported by broad upper-level ridging over the
heart of the CONUS, with an 500 hPa axis lying near the Mississippi
River.
The pattern remains fairly stagnant through the short-term period.
The upper-level ridge over the CONUS will retrograde westward to
a position more over the High Plains, while ridging further north
in Canada shears eastward into Quebec, leading to weak height
falls over the Ohio Valley. Nothing more than some passing high
clouds are expected in the disturbed flow aloft late tonight and
on Tuesday. The surface high pressure center to our northeast
will fade away and be replaced by the northern surface high as
that high passes over the Upper Great Lakes/ Northern Ontario
tonight and then over the St. Lawrence Valley by Tuesday night.
Locally, this will continue to bring more of what we are already
seeing: a cool and dry northeasterly low-level flow down the
Appalachians and across eastern Kentucky. Dew points will remain
low enough to favor patchy frost each night in sheltered valley
locations away from larger stream courses/lakes, while the
moisture contribution from significant water sources will tend to
favor fog formation in the typical mainstem river valleys and
their larger tributaries.
In everyday terms, anticipate clear skies through late tonight,
with temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s falling off rapidly as
the sun sets this evening. Valley fog is likely to form in the
deeper river valleys and patchy frost in the sheltered hollows as
temperatures settle back into the mid 30s in the coolest hollows
to the mid 40s on thermal belt ridges. Looking ahead to Tuesday, a
few wisps of cirrus/cirrocumulus will filter the sun for some;
otherwise, any early morning fog and frost will give way to mostly
sunny skies and temperatures rebounding back into the upper 60s
to mid 70s by mid-afternoon. The story for Tuesday night is
similar to the prior night as skies trend clear behind any departing
high clouds. Fog formation will again be likely in the river
valleys while patchy frost cannot be ruled out in the colder
hollows, as thermometers once again dip into the mid 30s in the
chilliest hollows to the mid 40s on thermal belt ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 412 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
There is reasonably high confidence in dry weather with normal to
slightly above normal temperatures through the period.
In terms of our local area, there is good model agreement for the
big picture until near the end of the forecast period. The period
begins with a weak upper level low and modest troughing off the East
Coast, and strong upper level ridging over the central CONUS,
especially the plains. With time, the East Coast troughing will
further weaken and the ridging will shift eastward as troughing
advances into the western CONUS, with the ridge reaching us during
the weekend. Until the ridge arrives, we will have a dry
northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure or ridging
based mainly to our north will dominate our area. The flow aloft
could support a weak and dying cold front to move south toward the
Ohio Valley late in the week, but it will probably not get here, and
even if it does it would not have any real effect. Even so, no
return to meaningful warm air advection is foreseen either. One
model difference to note-- the NAM is much colder with surface
temperatures (mainly highs) than the GFS or ECMWF on Wednesday and
Thursday. The NAM generates very low and shallow stratus in cold air
advection and would suggest high temperatures as much as 15-20
degrees colder than the GFS or ECMWF. Considering the lack of precip
or significant systems passing through, this scenario looks highly
suspect and is being discounted.
Larger scale model differences finally become more significant early
next week in terms of the demise of the upper ridge and how
troughing evolves as it advances toward us from the west or
northwest. However, in terms of actual effects on our local weather,
the differences don't appear to become significant until after this
long term period.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the
region through the TAF period. This will lead to light easterly
to northerly winds with only a few high clouds on Tuesday. VFR
should largely prevail. The exception will be valley fog along
rivers and larger tributaries between 04Z and 14Z, that may be
dense with reductions to IFR or lower in some areas. The fog is
not expected to affect the TAF sites with any visibility
reductions.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 19, 9:34 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
