LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 6:14 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...136
FXUS64 KLIX 152314 AAA
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
614 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
...NEW AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
- A strong cold front will move through late tomorrow, bringing
cooler and much drier conditions along with very strong
northerly winds. This will lead to multiple impacts.
- First impact is elevated fire weather concerns. Fire Weather
Watch has already been issued for all of southwestern MS and
portions of southeast LA for Saturday but if the front speeds up
anymore a Red Flag Warning may be needed for far northwestern
portions of the CWA for Friday afternoon and early evening.
- Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous
marine conditions. A Gale Watch has been issued for all of the
coastal waters beginning tomorrow evening through Saturday
evening. Marine headlines may be needed for much of the coastal
waters into the new work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Sunday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
BLUF - FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING and a Fire Weather
Watch has already been issued for the northwestern half of the
CWA.
The cold front will quickly move through tomorrow and behind it
much drier and cooler air will quickly build in behind it. This
front is going to likely be dry so little to any rain is expected
over the area.
For all fire weather concerns please refer to Fire Weather Section
below.
The other impact from this front and will be a welcome one is the
much cooler temps. Models and especially the NBm really struggle
with the early season fronts and how much mixing we will see. It
appears that the Model guidance both MOS and raw is catching up
and shows rather dry conditions overnight tomorrow night through
Saturday night. The other part that the NBM tends to struggle
with is overnight lows in these situations, especially the second
night low. Guidance continues to trend cooler and cooler for
Sunday morning and even has gotten quite cool for Friday
ngiht/Saturday morning. Unless the CAA is much stronger that what
is currently being advertised by the models I think some of the
guidance is being a little overzealous with the cool down
tomorrow night. it will still be rather cool with lows in the 50s
maybe the outside chance of the far northwest dropping into the
upper 40s.
As for Saturday night almost everything is set for the coldest
night of the season. In fact guidance continues to trend down with
all of the main MOS products showing some location's dropping
into the lower 40s. The biggest question with Saturday night is
wind. The models still show winds staying up at h925 and h850 all
night with h925 winds possibly up to 25 kts all night across the
eastern half of the CWA. Even if the sfc winds are able to drop
and even decouple, low level winds of this magnitude will still
promote some mixing. With that I have used a mix of the MOS
guidance and NBM for lows Sunday morning which shows lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
The very pleasant conditions this weekend will quickly depart
however it will still feel more like fall going into next week.
Medium range models overall are in general agreement with the
pattern over our area and the biggest thing is...expect the lack
of rain to continue and the temperatures to slowly climb. No
adjustments from the NBM in the long term.
The disturbance that brings our front tomorrow and the northwest
flow behind it quickly breaks down before we even get into the new
work week. Ridging already over TX and the western Gulf quickly
builds in Monday and it will just dominate the region well into
next week. High pressure at the sfc will quickly shift to the
northeast however we will still be dominated by high pressure as a
large anti-cyclone over south-central Canada south of the Hudson
Bay and it will wedge all the way into the Lower MS Valley and
even over the TX coast. This is going to keep us dry with no rain
in the forecast however we won't see dewpoints recover greatly and
thus overnight lows should still be fairly comfortable. On the
other hand the LL temps will begin to moderate and we will likely
be back in the mid 80s over much of the area by Tuesday. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
VFR conditions this evening will likely give way to lower VIS/CIGs
Friday morning ahead of the approaching cold front. For now IFR or
perhaps LIFR cannot be ruled out especially terminals along and
north of the I10/12 corridor. Conditions will clear by mid to late
morning then eyes will focus on winds increasing out of the north
behind the front toward the end of the cycle. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
The last bit of benign marine conditions will occur tonight but by
tomorrow afternoon/evening conditions will become extremely
impactful. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and
Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapidly building
seas. Gale conditions are possible across all of the coastal waters
and with that we have issued a Gale Watch beginning tomorrow night
and continuing through Saturday evening. Some locations like the
tidal lakes and near shore waters will likely be able to come down
to a Small Craft Advisory Saturday at some point but strong winds
will persist into Sunday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday
and slack off some but there is a good chance that headline may be
needed into the beginning to the new work week. /CAB/
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056-057-071-076-079>086.
GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
GMZ529-531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for MSZ068>071.
GM...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
GMZ531>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 6:14 PM CDT ...NEW AVIATION...---------------
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