JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 1:32 PM EDT353
FXUS63 KJKL 181732
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
132 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread frost and a brief period of near-freezing to sub-
freezing temperatures are likely early this morning.
- Frost is anticipated again from tonight into Monday morning,
especially in the valleys of far eastern and southeastern
Kentucky.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows a strong area of high pressure centered
just northeast of the state controlling the weather locally. This
has meant cloud free skies, light winds, and lower dewpoints -
also near ideal conditions for radiational cooling. As a result, a
small to moderate ridge and valley temperature split has
developed along with valley fog - locally dense - amid the likely
widespread frost. Currently, temperatures are down into the mid
30s in the sheltered valleys while ridges are settling into the
lower 40s. Meanwhile, dewpoints have fallen into the mid 30s
throughout the area.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in near
perfect symmetry aloft over the state through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict the northeast portion of
a fairly large 5h ridge over the southern States nudging into
eastern Kentucky this morning. This node of the ridge will hold
in place over the area through Monday west of a deepening coastal
system, though some mid level energy does slip into the region
just to the west late in the period. Given the minuscule model
spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data
this morning. However, did enhance the terrain distinctions
tonight on account of the sfc high movement and incorporating the
COOP MOS guidance. Did also drop afternoon dewpoints and RH from
the NBM numbers considering deeper mixing into drier air aloft.
Sensible weather will feature true autumn weather continuing with
a Freeze Warning in effect for several of our northwest counties
and a Frost Advisory for the rest of the area through 9 AM EDT.
The narrow tendrils of dense river valley fog will probably
protect those areas from frosting or freezing this morning. Look
for plenty of sunshine to help temperatures t
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
The models remain in good agreement through the end of the
upcoming work week. A ridge will sharpen up in the mid and upper
levels over the central CONUS. This will lead to a prolonged
period of dry weather across the Ohio and Tennesseee valleys. The
model agreement decreases a bit more by next weekend, as the
confidence lowers regarding the evolution of eastern Pacific
as it ejects east of the Rockies.
Eastern Kentucky will be under the influence of the ridge through
the period. Surface high pressure will mainly center to our north
and northeast through Friday, allowing for only a slow moderation
in temperatures. Skies will remain mostly clear through next week.
Patchy frost will continue to be possible in the normally colder
sheltered valleys once again Monday and Tuesday night, as drier
low level air will likely mix down below the blended guidance
during peak mixing. Highs will average in the upper 60s and lower
70s each day, with lows gradually warming through the 30s and
eventually into the 40s each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
Clear skies and VFR conditions continue to prevail across Eastern
Kentucky at the 18z TAF issuance time. The proximity of a nearby
surface high pressure system will keep skies clear throughout the
TAF period. Efficient diurnal mixing has been observed across the
area's ASOS/AWOS/Mesonet data, and that mixing could yield an
occasional 15-20 mph wind gust later this afternoon. Aside from
these gusts, winds should be light and variable for the rest of
the period. Dense river valley fog is likely to develop again after
dark tonight, but the related vsby reductions will not impact any
of the TAF sites.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...MARCUS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 18, 1:32 PM EDT---------------
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