JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 1:49 PM EDT906
FXUS63 KJKL 171749
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
149 PM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy rain and areas of drizzle will be found over the area
through mid morning.
- Much cooler weather has arrived. This will mean widespread
frost and spots of brief freezing conditions tonight into Sunday
morning.
- Frost is also anticipated Sunday night into Monday morning for
many valley locations.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with a tweaking of the PoPs in the near term. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows a secondary cold front and wrap around
moisture working through eastern Kentucky. This means low clouds,
areas of fog, and patches of light rain/drizzle. Conditions are
generally damp and quite cool. Currently, temperatures are down
into the mid and upper 40s most places. Meanwhile, amid chilly
north to northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts,
dewpoints are now down in the low to mid 40s across the area.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the sharp trough departing eastern
Kentucky this morning and taking its robust core of mid-level
energy out of the state. 5h heights will then climb with northwest
flow to follow into Sunday morning before ridging builds back into
Kentucky from the southwest. Given the still very small model
spread, most of the forecast grids came from unadjusted NBM data
this morning. However, did incorporate the latest CAMs guidance
into the near term NBM PoPs along with some upslope climatology
into mid morning - slowing the clearing a tad. Did also fine tune
the temps tonight with the CAA and expectations for frost.
Sensible weather will feature a stark reminder of the season that
we are in, yielding high temperatures today and Sunday 20 to 30
degrees cooler than those of the past few days. After a damp start
with patches of light rain and drizzle around, sunshine returns
late along with drying conditions. This becomes more prominent on
Sunday when afternoon dewpoints will likely be less than NBM
guidance. For tonight, the autumn catches up to eastern Kentucky
and most probably brings widespread frost to the area and even a
few places in the northwest seeing a brief period of sub freezing
conditions. Accordingly, have issued a Freeze Warning for several
of our northwest counties and a Frost Advisory for the rest of
the area.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were to include details
from the latest CAMs consensus into the PoPs through midday along
with some extra upslope climatology causing it to linger longer
than modeled. With temperatures: did fine tune them tonight for
some enhanced terrain effects considering the CAA. Did also tweak
dewpoints and RH lower for Sunday afternoon on account of the
expectation for deeper mixing of dry air aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
The extended portion of the forecast appears to still be on track
for more frost concerns Sunday night, especially in the valleys
on account of ridging aloft and strong sfc high pressure in place.
The overall pattern will likely keep the weather rather quiet for
the upcoming week with gradual moderation in temperatures each
day following a chilly start to the new week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The long-term forecast period opens Sunday morning with 500 hPa
ridging over the Central CONUS between an ~574 dam low off the
Carolina Coast and a ~578 dam low over the Lower Colorado River
Basin. The ridging aloft will support strong ~1038 mb surface
high pressure situated over the Mid-Atlantic with a ridge axis
extending southwest all the way into Texas. The only other feature
of note will be a coastal low churning up rough seas off of the
Carolinas.
The overall synoptic pattern will largely hold in place through the
duration of the long-term period -- though some of the upper-
level features will become more amplified with time. The surface
high center will also propagate northward but all the while
maintain a cool and dry north to northeasterly low-level flow into
eastern Kentucky. This will keep the air mass over eastern
Kentucky slow to modify through the work week. In fact, the
combination of dry air and light winds should again favor
significant frost or a light freeze on Sunday night into Monday
morning in the valleys. While successive nights will gradually
turn milder, the pattern remains favorable for renewed light frost
formation on Monday and Tuesday nights in the typically colder
spots.
In sensible terms, expect fair weather and light winds from Sunday
through Friday along with a slow warming trend. Daily high temperatures
start the week in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Sunday and moderate
to the lower to middle 70s by Friday. Meanwhile, nighttime lows
range in the 30s on Sunday night with extensive frost probable in
valleys, but slowly moderate into mostly the 40s by Thursday night
into Friday morning. Patchy frost appears possible in the coldest
northern hollows through at least Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
High-end MVFR and low-end VFR conditions are observed across area
terminals this afternoon, largely in part due to a stubborn broken
cloud deck that is being aided by a north-northeasterly wind fetch
off of Lake Erie. This has yielded a few embedded, terrain-
enhanced rain showers in far eastern and southeastern Kentucky.
The only terminal near these showers is KSJS, and the potential
for some light rain has been handled with a PROB30 there. The
cloud deck and precipitation potential should scatter out this
afternoon as diurnal mixing and dry air advection take root.
Breaks can already be observed within this afternoon's satellite
imagery, and the clearing trend should continue through sunset.
Clouds will hang around the longest at southern and eastern
terminals, but forecast thinking remains that they should give way
to mostly clear skies tonight. This nocturnal return to VFR
conditions coincides with a transition to lighter surface winds,
which will acquire more of an easterly orientation headed into
tomorrow. Patchy valley fog is possible overnight, but it is not
expected to impact the terminals. A widespread frost/freeze is
more likely, so once skies clear out, VFR conditions should
persist through the end of the 18z TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ044-050>052.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEERTSON/GREIF
AVIATION...MARCUS
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 17, 1:49 PM EDT---------------
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