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910 FXUS64 KLIX 141830AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026- Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Areas of fog, potentially dense at times, will be possible again Thursday morning.- A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing much cooler and drier conditions of the weekend. Strong northerly winds behind the front will lead to hazardous marine conditions, with gale conditions possible.- Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible Saturday as gusty northeasterly winds combine with min RH values in the upper 20s and low 30s across the area.&&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Saturday)Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026The main focus in the short term will be the unseasonably warm anddry conditions through Friday before a fairly strong cold frontbrings our first real taste of fall this weekend. In the meantime,upper-level ridging will continue to influence the area and keepmost of the precipitation away.Starting with today, the fog that developed overnight hasessentially all lifted this afternoon as daytime heating brokedown the shallow inversion at the surface. With plenty of sunshineand the continued influence of the ridge, temperatures will onceagain climb into the upper 80s and low 90s across much of thearea. One thing to note is the rather dry air that had beensitting atop the shallow moist layer this morning. As theboundary-layer mixing get going this afternoon, some of that drierair should be able to mix down to the surface and lower dewpoints. Therefore, dew points were bumped down slightly from theNBM this afternoon to account for the expected mixing. This willbring min RH values into the 30s across much of the area, withsome locations potentially getting lower. Thankfully, winds willremain light enough to limit the overall fire weather concernsdespite the dry conditions.Tonight into Thursday morning, fog becomes another concern as theshallow low-level moisture remains in place. The main questionwill be how efficiently the boundary layer can cool and whetherwinds remain light enough for fog to be dense. There will be avery dry layer above the inversion, so even a slight increase inmixing could prevent widespread dense fog from developing.However, given the moisture near the surface and the expectedovernight cooling, at least some areas of fog seem likely again,with locally dense fog possible. The greatest visibilityrestrictions should be around sunrise before improving through themorning.Thursday will be very similar to today as the ridge remains incontrol. Expect another day of mostly sunny skies with highs inthe upper 80s and low 90s across the area. The immediate coastalareas should remain slightly cooler due to the marine influence.Rain chances will remain near zero for most of the area thanks tothe continued subsidence and lack of sufficient moisture andforcing.Things start to change on Friday as a trough progressing acrossthe central CONUS begins breaking down the ridge overhead and pushes a cold front toward the area. The main forecasting challenge will be the exact timing of the front. If it manages to move through earlier on Friday, particularly across southwest MS and the northern Florida Parishes, afternoon temperatures could bea few degrees cooler than currently forecast. However, if the front holds off until later in the day, we could squeeze out one more rather warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. For now, confidence is higher in the overall frontal passage than the exact timing across the CWA. Precipitation chances remainquite limited with this front as sufficient deep-layer moisture and forcing look to remain displaced from much of the inland area.There could be some showers closer to the coast and offshore, butwidespread rainfall is not expected.The cold front should make its way through the area late Fridayand Friday night, bringing a much drier and cooler airmass intothe region. Looking at the short-range guidance, they generallyagree in an increase in northerly flow across the northern Gulfbehind the front, although there is some differences in theplacement and magnitude of the strongest winds. The tighteningpressure gradient between the departing front and building surfacehigh will support gusty winds, especially areas south of LakePontchartrain and over the marine areas. Because of this, windswere bumped up slightly from the NBM behind the front to betteraccount expected gradient and post-frontal mixing. Small craftAdvisories will likely be needed, and some of the offshore waterscould approach gale conditions.By Saturday, the cooler and drier air will have taken over theentire area. Highs should only reach the low to mid 70s for mostlocations, which will be roughly 10-15 degrees cooler than what wehave been experiencing. Another thing to note is how much the dewpoints should drop behind this front. The strong northerly flowwill advect a much drier continental airmass into the area, anddaytime mixing should help bring some of that dry air to thesurface. Therefore, dew points were lowered from NBM again onSaturday, especially along and north of I-10/12, to account forthe expected dry-air advection and mixing. This brings min RHvalues down to the upper 20s and lower 30s for portions ofsouthwest MS and the Florida Parishes. Unlike today, however,winds will also be elevated behind the front, so fire weatherconcerns will need to be monitored closely, especially where thelowest RH values overlap with the stronger winds. Otherwise,expect a mostly sunny and much more comfortable Saturday acrossthe area. &&.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Tuesday)Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026The previously mentioned cold front will have cleared the area bySaturday night, leaving a much cooler and drier airmass in place.Surface high pressure will continue building towards the regionwhile ridging aloft keeps conditions dry and stable throughSunday.The main forecast challenge Saturday night into Sunday morningwill be how efficiently temperatures can cool behind the front. With the much drier airmass in place and mostly clear skies expected, radiational cooling should become fairly efficient, particularly across the interior areas and the typical drainage areas. Although winds will be somewhat elevated closer to the coast and lakes, they should begin relaxing farther inland as the surface high builds closer to the area. Therefore, minimum temperatures were bumped down slightly from the NBM Sunday morningto account for the expected cooling. The coolest temperatures should be across southwest MS, the northern Florida Parishes, and the Pearl River drainage areas, while locations south of the lake and along the immediate coast due to the marine influence and slightly stronger winds. The biggest question will be how quickly the pressure gradient relaxes overnight, as any persistent mixing could keep temperatures from falling quite as much.Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day as the drier airmass andample sunshine allow temperatures to rebound into the upper 70sand low 80s. With the high pressure still influencing the area,expect little to no precipitation for most inland locations. As wehead into Sunday night, the surface high begins shifting furthereast, allowing more southeasterly flow to return and graduallyincreasing low-level moisture. This should also bring minimumtemperatures back up closer to normal.As we get into Monday and Tuesday, model guidance starts todiverge on how the upper-level pattern evolves. Some guidancefavors a more amplified ridge remaining over the southeasternCONUS, which would keep the area predominantly dry whiletemperatures gradually warm back above normal. On the other hand,some guidance is more progressive with the ridge and brings ashortwave trough through the lower MS Valley. This would providebetter forcing and allow some precipitation chances toreturn,mainly along and south of I-10 where the better moistureshould reside.With these differences in the guidance, decided to stay with theNBM for the remainder of the long term period. This keepstemperatures gradually warming into the mid to upper 80s byTuesday, with low-end rain chances returning to portions of thearea. Confidence is lower than average for early next week giventhe differences in the upper-level pattern, so we'll have to seewhich solution the guidance trends towards in the coming days.&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through thisevening with mostly clear skies and light winds. The main concernwill be another round of fog overnight into Thursday morning aswinds become light to calm and the surface cools. LIFR conditionsare expected across most terminals generally developing between09-12z, with some terminals dropping to 1/4SM and ceilings around100 feet. The biggest question will be how widespread the densefog becomes given the very dry air just above the inversion. Anyfog should dissipate between 13-15z as daytime heating allows theboundary layer to mix out, with VFR conditions returningthereafter.&&.MARINE...Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026High pressure will keep winds relatively calm through Thursday. A strong cold front will move through late Friday and Friday night, bringing strong northerly winds and rapid building seas. Small craft Advisory conditions are likely through the weekend, with gale conditions possible across portions of the offshore waters on late Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually turn easterly Sunday but remain elevated into early next week.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ529-531-532-534.MS...None.GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for GMZ531-532-534.&&$$SHORT TERM...JZLONG TERM....JZAVIATION...JZMARINE...JZ
