MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 1:02 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...153
FXUS64 KMOB 161802
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
102 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
- Strong wind gusts expected to pose an enhanced threat for
additional numerous downed trees and power outages over
portions of interior southwest Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle.
- Strong winds and dry conditions will move over the area on
Saturday, creating an increased risk of wildfires.
- Dangerous marine conditions developing Friday night through the
weekend due to strong winds and high seas. In addition, a High
Risk of dangerous rip currents return to area beaches from
Saturday night into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Monitoring the potential for fog development tonight across the
area as low level moisture gradually increases and winds become
light. This will favor fog, some potentially dense in some areas
especially across coastal Alabama into the western Florida
Panhandle where moisture will be greatest. At this time, it
appears that limited coverage will preclude the need for a dense
fog advisory.
A potent upper level trough will dive southeast across the Middle
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys tonight and Friday then off of
the Southeast U.S. coast by Friday night. This will drive a strong
cold front across the region later this afternoon and tonight.
Moisture advection in advance of this front should remain limited,
but may be enough along with lift along the front to produce a few
showers today along the coast. Most areas should remain dry with
the frontal passage.
Another potentially high impact weather situation is likely to
develop behind a strong cold front that will move through the
forecast area Friday afternoon and evening. Behind the front,
strong cold air advection and mixing will support the development
of strong northerly wind gusts later Friday night through
Saturday. This raises concerns especially across areas that
experienced significant damage across portions of the western
Florida Panhandle into interior portions of southwest Alabama.
Latest short-term high resolution model guidance is suggesting the
potential for several hours of wind gusts approaching 40 mph late
Friday night into Saturday morning. The strength of these winds
will have the potential to down numerous additional trees that
were damaged by the extreme wind event associated with the sting
jet on the west side of Hurricane Isaias. This would likely result
in additional power outages in the hardest hit areas. We plan to
issue a wind advisory this evening and add special wording to
account for this threat.
Temperatures will drop significantly behind the front with high
temperatures over the weekend only recovering into the upper 60s
to lower 70s, with lows in the middle to upper 40s over interior
areas to the lower 50s near the coast.
Upper level ridging will rebuild into the forecast area early next
week with dry weather and slowly moderating temperatures
anticipated through next week. /JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon into the early
evening hours may cause brief reductions in ceilings an visibilities
over portions of the coastal counties. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR
conditions through the period. The main impact to operations over
the next 24 hours will be a strong cold front moving through the
area this evening. Winds will increase rapidly out of the north
(around 00Z-02Z for the TAF sites) to around 20 knots with gusts to
around 30 knots. Low-level wind shear may also become a concern by
Saturday morning with 0-2000 ft shear potentially reaching 25-30
knots, but just below threshold at this time. Gusty north winds will
continue through the end of the period. JGC/98
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026
Strong northerly winds are forecast for tonight as a strong cold
front passes over area waters. A Gale warning is now in effect for
all coastal waters tonight and Saturday, continuing through
Saturday night well offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is likely for
protected waters Saturday night as northerly winds begin to
gradually ease. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for
the offshore waters Sunday through Monday, with Small Craft
Exercise Caution in the bays and sounds. /13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 53 70 51 70 / 10 0 0 0
Pensacola 56 71 54 70 / 10 0 0 0
Destin 58 72 56 71 / 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 50 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 49 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 50 67 46 67 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 54 70 50 68 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
ALZ054>060-261>266.
FL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
FLZ201>206.
MS...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
MSZ078-079.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
GMZ630>636.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
GMZ650-655.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for
GMZ650-655.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for
GMZ670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for
GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 16, 1:02 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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