Author Topic: [Alert]The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 5:47z for portions of IWX  (Read 308 times)

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The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 5:47z for portions of IWX

564 
WUUS01 KWNS 160548
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2024

VALID TIME 161200Z - 171200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   44267338 43707234 42497335 41957539 42457706 43237718
       43907620 44327464 44267338
0.02   42360078 43309994 43429894 43249792 42079735 40779757
       40269895 40500032 41110083 42360078
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   44297475 44317335 43707216 41927258 40177357 39207489
       38627608 38277880 38138207 38548297 39518296 40218207
       42207847 43867613 44297475
0.05   38150467 38840465 41310405 42530310 43840112 44039946
       43659749 42869644 41209631 39569567 38539429 37769281
       36589236 35849292 35229431 34839726 34879943 34930271
       35780374 36630435 38150467
0.15   42739974 42879899 42689795 42109735 40119812 36829978
       36430183 36880324 38290380 39220335 41340142 42380043
       42739974
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   31311224 32621191 33381151 33551067 32740916 30960894
0.05   38397391 37857661 36968389 35918993 35249424 34869720
       34860046 34960268 35820381 36630435 38090470 38800471
       41200403 42440317 43350196 43840112 44039946 43599724
       43339627 42769561 40119390 39549275 39409155 39488980
       40168677 40748376 41298257 42688131 99999999 45577138
       43617131 42577155 42367164 41547199 40647244 40297246
0.15   38390370 39180349 40570218 42040087 42530028 42789982
       42879883 42659787 42109731 40179745 37909775 37039791
       36369834 35959932 35780009 35840115 36100220 36430331
       36930363 37800368 38390370
0.15   44217323 43647228 41817264 40157361 39187502 38727642
       38457857 38578011 38938198 39568224 40148177 41268000
       41947879 43137725 43917610 44227474 44217323
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   35830129 36420336 36900367 38320376 39180345 42370051
       42759986 42859896 42729800 42089734 39179758 37019791
       36369827 35959928 35750009 35830129
SLGT   44237325 43657228 41817264 40157361 39227496 38697640
       38457846 38558027 38878176 39108205 39578223 40128178
       41957878 43137727 43907610 44227472 44237325
MRGL   45667136 43617132 42587155 41557199 41147221 40627246
       40277243 99999999 38337419 38017572 37807686 37498001
       36918426 35948969 35229435 34869740 34880063 34930268
       35820381 36580431 37760464 38770471 41200399 42410316
       43220215 43780120 44039950 43829833 43509689 43239621
       42739556 42289535 40089385 39579277 39389163 39508980
       40358575 40778371 41298260 42498150
MRGL   31321225 32681189 33371153 33561070 32670911 30960895
TSTM   49550946 46740731 45240689 44590630 44040589 44000547
       44420488 46040347 46920022 46599757 45459592 43089367
       42279223 41689036 41668867 42458623 44148338 44878202
       99999999 28899399 30169392 31319325 33649125 34289104
       34709152 34499527 33680092 33000435 32480555 31750555
       31300485 30220209 29790156 29000140 99999999 31751420
       32581392 33151346 33891343 34801456 35941494 36691484
       37311539 38001633 37931720 37251809 37041922 38182028
       39952108 41072146 41422202 41942299 42702385 44292364
       44942233 45212130 45182045 44841844 44121805 43131731
       42331575 41861443 41521324 41771204 42271162 42851158
       43901166 45471159 46621208 47741309 48651440 49651603
TSTM   48288751 47868848 47259099 47589350 48479493 49569615

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
BGD 10 W CAO 40 NW CAO 25 NNW LHX 15 ESE LIC 30 WSW ANW 15 NNE ANW
30 NNW ONL 35 WSW YKN 10 NNE OFK 25 S CNK 40 ESE P28 20 W END 45 N
CSM 60 WNW CSM 10 NE BGD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW
BTV LEB 10 S BDL 35 SSE JFK 25 SW ACY 30 N NHK 20 N CHO 35 SW EKN 35
SE UNI 15 SE UNI 25 N UNI 15 NNE ZZV 15 NW BFD 20 E ROC 10 SSW ART
30 WSW SLK 15 SSW BTV.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE
EFK LCI 30 NE ORH 15 NNE GON 15 SSW GON 35 ESE ISP 50 SE ISP
...CONT... 70 E SBY 15 WNW WAL 30 NE RIC 10 N ROA 15 SW LOZ 15 WSW
DYR 10 S FSM 35 ESE CHK 35 NNW CDS 55 NE CVS 45 NNW TCC 15 SE RTN 35
SSW PUB COS 45 E CYS 30 S CDR 55 ENE CDR 30 SE PHP 20 NNW 9V9 15 WNW
MHE 10 SW FSD 35 SE FSD 20 WNW SLB 20 N DNS 25 NW CDJ 40 SSW IRK 45
SSW UIN 25 SSW SPI 20 WNW MIE 20 S FDY 30 N MFD 70 E MTC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 SW
TUS 50 ESE GBN 30 E PHX 65 SW SOW 35 ESE SAD 50 SE DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE HVR 70 WNW MLS
35 N SHR 35 ESE SHR 30 SW GCC 25 S GCC 30 E GCC 30 N 2WX 25 ENE BIS
40 WSW FAR 25 ENE VVV 20 WSW MCW 20 SSE ALO 15 NNE MLI 20 N MMO 25
NNE BEH 20 S OSC 75 ENE OSC ...CONT... 55 ESE GLS 15 NNE BPT 20 NNW
POE 20 NW GLH 50 E PBF 40 E LIT 40 SE MLC 50 E LBB 25 SSE ROW 40 SE
ALM 45 W GDP 35 S GDP 15 NNE 6R6 40 ESE 6R6 40 SW DRT ...CONT... 65
SSE YUM 40 E YUM 45 WNW GBN 75 ENE BLH EED 15 SE LAS 45 NNE LAS 50
WSW P38 40 E TPH 10 SW TPH 15 ESE BIH 35 ENE FAT 50 SSW TVL 65 ESE
RBL 50 ESE MHS 15 ENE MHS 30 SSW MFR 50 NNE 4BK 25 WNW EUG 35 E SLE
30 SSW DLS 45 SE DLS 30 W BKE 50 SSW BKE 45 NE REO 35 NE OWY 45 S
TWF 65 SW MLD 30 SSE MLD 35 ENE MLD 50 E PIH 35 NE IDA 30 SW BZN HLN
65 SE GPI 25 NNW GPI 120 NW GPI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NNE CMX 50 N CMX
20 E BFW 35 WNW HIB 35 SSE RRT 55 NNW ROX.


Source: The Storm Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Convective Risk at Jul 16, 5:47z for portions of IWX

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