JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 8:34 AM EDT372
FXUS63 KJKL 151234
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures remain mild today, while showers are possible at
times into Friday.
- Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest
we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for
frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 834 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
A frontal boundary is stalled east-west across the forecast area
this morning, with areas of showers tracking eastward along the
front. Meanwhile, a mid-upper level low is over the central high
plains and a significant mid-upper level trough is moving
southeast into the CONUS from southern portions of Saskatchewan
and Manitoba. The low will get picked up by this trough and help
to further deepen the trough as it continues to head southeast and
encompasses most of the eastern CONUS by Friday night. This will
support a surface low currently developing near OK, which will
rapidly deepen as it tracks across the Great Lakes and then to the
St. Lawrence Valley by late Friday. The developing storms system
will initially pull our current frontal boundary back northward
this afternoon, and take it out of our area to the north tonight.
Showers may continue at times near the front, but will end in our
area once the front departs to the north this evening. A few
thunderstorms will also be possible, especially if there is
sufficient heating for surface based instability near the boundary
this afternoon.
The storm system's cold front will sweep cleanly through the JKL
forecast area from NW to SE on Friday. Showers or light rain are
likely for most of the area on Friday, mainly post cold fropa.
Friday's highs should be during the morning and midday hours ahead
of the front, with temperatures then falling for the rest of the
day behind the front.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 834 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Expect a significant drop in temperatures to occur on Friday
evening, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide by sunset. Once
the sun goes down and solar insolation goes away, the temperature
plummet will continue. The entire CWA should wake up to
temperatures in the 40s on Saturday morning, but lingering cloud
cover and some upsloped rain showers should prevent it from
getting much colder than that.
The same cannot be said for Saturday night/Sunday morning, which
looks to be the coldest night of the autumn season thus far. As a
post-frontal surface high pressure system builds into the CWA on
Saturday morning, winds will shift to a more northerly orientation.
This will bring an end to any orographically-enhanced post-frontal
rain chances, and a much cooler/drier continental airmass will move
into the region in the wake of the precipitation. Highs will
struggle to get much warmer than the 50s, and dewpoints will plummet
into the 30s on Saturday afternoon. Diurnal mixing should work to
erode any lingering cloud cover by sunset, which should set the
stage for efficient radiational cooling overnight. NBM ensemble data
resolves a 60-90% chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees
across most of the JKL CWA overnight. The most sheltered and shaded
valleys could make a run at the 32 degree mark, but the probability
of occurrence drops to below 40% at this threshold. As a reminder,
the criteria for a Frost Advisory is defined as minimum shelter
forecast temperatures between 33 and 36 degrees Fahrenheit during
the growing season, on nights with good radiational cooling
conditions. Saturday night is poised to meet this criteria, so
agricultural interests and recreational gardeners are encouraged to
monitor for potential product issuances as the time approaches.
Temperatures will be slow to make a full recovery back above the 70
degree mark next week, although a gradual warm-up is expected. The
postfrontal high should shift east on Sunday as the mid/upper level
trough axis aloft swings through New England. Antecedent forecast
thinking is that a building ridge will allow temperatures to
moderate back into the 60s under fair skies by early next week.
However, some of the more recent pieces of guidance (namely members
of the Euro ensemble) are developing a cut-off low over the
Carolinas in this time frame. That feature could block the eastward
propagation of that ridging, and it would cause temperatures to stay
on the lower side of the forecast envelope early next week.
Nevertheless, fog should become favored over frost in the valleys at
night as temperatures warm. This is typical for autumn in Eastern
Kentucky, and next week's forecast features temperatures much closer
to normal than what we are experiencing at the present moment.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 226 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
Light to moderate rain lingered mainly in portions of southeast KY
at the start of the period-- the remains of a line of
thunderstorms which moved through much of the area. The
precipitation is ahead of a very slow moving cold front moving
south into KY. Many locations were seeing IFR or worse conditions
where the precip moved through, and especially near/north of I-64.
However, some places were still VFR, especially over south
central KY.
The remaining precip will be tapering off, but largely the status
quo is expected for conditions into the day, with some
variability up and down. There still could be some additional
showers as well.
The cold front will stall in eastern KY during the day and then
turn back north as a warm front by evening. As the front heads
back north, overall improvement is expected from south to north.
VFR conditions are forecast to return area wide from south to
north during the afternoon and early evening.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS/HAL
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 15, 8:34 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
