JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 11:13 AM EDT579
FXUS63 KJKL 141513 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1113 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth continues today.
- The next potential for showers arrives from the northwest by
late today and persists at times through Friday.
- A few thunderstorms capable of locally heavy rain and strong
wind gusts and are possible this afternoon and evening.
- Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest
we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for
frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
Late this morning, a few bands of low clouds were moving across
the CWA as a cold front sags into the OH Valley and a shortwave
trough moves east northeast. An area of showers and a few
thunderstorms was occurring over southeastern IL, southwest IN,
and over sections of western KY. Additional solar insolation will
occur in advance of the shortwave and front through the afternoon
and temperatures will again climb to near record levels. PW is
currently analyzed in the 1.1 to 1.55 inch range, with values
expected to rise to roughly the 1.5 to 2.1 inch range by early
this evening. Shower and storm chances return late in the
afternoon to early in the evening. Storms late in the afternoon to
early in the evening could produce gusty winds and brief downpours,
with the threat for heavy downpours continuing into the evening
as the boundary becomes nearly parallel with the upper flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 541 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
High pressure surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS continues
to dominate our weather early this morning. However, changes are
taking shape. The southern edge of the prevailing westerlies aloft
is over the Ohio Valley, along with a slow moving cold front. Gulf
moisture is flowing around the periphery of the surface high and
being pulled along the frontal boundary. This is evidenced by the
blooming of low clouds over the Ohio Valley overnight, including
northern KY. Thunderstorms along the front and an associated
shortwave trough are over the mid Mississippi Valley. The trough
will ripple eastward today and tonight and support the continued
southward creep of the cold front, as well as additional shower
and thunderstorms development. With this, we will see the POP
increase over the JKL forecast area today into tonight. Our
highest POP will be closest to the front, over the northern part
of the area, as the trough moves by. Precipitable water should
increase to above 2" for all of KY except the far southeast. In
tandem with mainly unidirectional flow, this could allow for
locally heavy convective rainfall.
An upper low currently over the southwest CONUS (or at least the
bulk of the low) will get picked up by a potent upper level trough
moving southeast into the upper Midwest tonight and Thursday. This
will support surface low pressure traveling from the southern
plains tonight to the mid Mississippi Valley by late Thursday.
The approaching low will cause the front to lose momentum and
stall over KY on Thursday. The proximity of the front will support
a continued potential for showers/thunderstorms on Thursday, but
the POP will be lower due to less upper level support. There is
uncertainty regarding how far the front progresses before
stalling, and this will affect temperatures, which lowers
confidence in the temperature forecast for Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 541 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
The long term forecast period is defined by a significant change in
sensible weather conditions across eastern Kentucky. While the
period begins Thursday night with unusually mild conditions
overnight, a potent cold front should sweep through the area early
Friday and usher in a noticeably cooler and drier airmass for the
weekend. In fact, Saturday's forecast features the coldest
temperatures of the season thus far. A widespread frost is looking
increasingly likely on Saturday night, but temperatures are forecast
to moderate back towards climatological norms under fair skies early
next week.
The period begins with a sharp trough ejecting southeast out of
Canada, phasing with a leeward Rocky Mountain trough to yield a
deeper, positively-tilted feature over the Upper Midwest on Thursday
evening. Vertically-stacked southwesterly flow around the base of
that trough will advect warm air into the atmospheric column over
the Ohio River Valley. The aforementioned boundary is accordingly
forecast to lift back north as a warm front on Thursday night, and a
deepening surface low should emerge over the Great Lakes by Friday
morning. In response to the tightening pressure gradient, winds will
become breezy overnight. This will prevent the area's conventional
ridge-valley splits from materializing in this time frame, as the
boundary layer should remain well mixed. Given the lack of
decoupling and the warm air advection regime in place, Thursday
night's temperature forecast looks unseasonably mild. Expect a muted
diurnal heating curve, with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday's high temperatures will be pretty similar to Thursday
night's lows, as the cold front associated with this system will be
on the doorstep of the JKL CWA on Friday morning. (In fact, latest
modeling suggests that in some locations Friday's high temperatures
will occur at or shortly after midnight.) There should be enough
forced lift for some generic rain showers over the CWA during and
after Friday's frontal passage, but the greatest impacts from this
boundary will stem from its cold air advection. The sharp nature of
the parent troughing aloft and the fairly tight surface pressure
gradient in this set up collectively suggest that there will be a
pronounced shift from breezy southwesterly winds to gustier
northwesterly winds as frontal passage occurs on Friday.
Northwesterly wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range are likely on Friday
afternoon/evening before the pressure gradient weakens overnight.
The winds will retain their northwesterly orientation through
Saturday morning, which will help them usher a noticeably cooler and
drier airmass into the region for the weekend. That efficient cold
air advection may actually cause temperatures to decrease during the
afternoon hours on Friday, with widespread temps in the 50s by
Friday evening and the upper 30s to 40s on Saturday morning.
Northerly winds associated with a post-frontal surface high will
keep the cold air advection going on Saturday. High temps will
struggle to make it out of the 50s, and afternoon dewpoints should
plummet towards the low/mid 30s area-wide. Under mostly clear skies
and slackening winds, Saturday night looks to be the coldest night
of the season thus far. Efficient radiational cooling and those dry
dewpoint values favor widespread low temperatures in the 30s and
frost potential in more than just the typical cold spots. Near-
freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered and
shadiest valley locales, but a widespread freeze appears unlikely.
Nevertheless, frost/freeze headline products will need to be
considered as this time frame approaches and forecast confidence
continues to improve. Agricultural interests and recreational
gardeners are accordingly encouraged to review any relevant frost
preparedness plans and stay tuned for potential product issuance.
The progressive nature of the overarching synoptic weather pattern
prevents this chillier air from becoming permanent. It is not winter
yet, and winter precipitation is not expected. The postfrontal high
should shift east on Sunday as the previous trough axis aloft swings
through New England. Modeled height rises amidst a building ridge
suggest that temperatures will moderate under fair skies in the
latter stages of the forecast period. Expect highs to rebound into
the 60s on Sunday and then towards the 70 degree mark early next
week. Dewpoints will be slow to recover to the pre-frontal values
forecast at the beginning of the period, but the approach of a
southern-stream shortwave trough on Monday should return some
moisture to the column by Monday night into Tuesday. So, while an
additional round of patchy frost is possible in the coldest valleys
on Sunday night, Eastern Kentucky's typical autumnal river valley
fog should return to the forecast on Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
Fog is prevalent in the deep valleys of southeast KY early this
morning. It will dissipate during the few hours after sunrise. It
shouldn't affect TAF sites. Aside from fog, conditions were VFR,
but there were cloud bases mostly in the 3.5-5K ft AGL range
resulting in ceilings for much of the area.
VFR conditions are forecast to last through most of the day, but
with the ceilings continuing to be present at times. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms are then expected to show up from the
northwest by late in the day and advance southeast into the area
tonight. A deterioration to MVFR (possibly worse) conditions is
forecast at times with the precip this evening, until a further
decline to steadier IFR or low end MVFR occurs as the night goes
by.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS/CMC
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 11:13 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
