JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 4:06 AM EDT986
FXUS63 KJKL 140806
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
406 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near record warmth continues on Wednesday.
- The next potential for showers arrives from the northwest by late
Wednesday and persists at times through Friday.
- A few thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and locally
heavy rain are possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening,
mainly for areas north of the KY-80/Hal Rogers Pkwy Corridor.
- Much cooler weather arrives for the weekend - likely the coldest
we have experienced so far this autumn. This poses a risk for
frost on Saturday night into Sunday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
As of 3 PM EDT, a 500 mb ridge was centered over the northwestern
Gulf, with the ridge axis extending into the TN and OH Valleys and
across much of the southeast. Meanwhile, an upper level trough
extended from MT to the southwest Conus with an upper low centered
in NV. Further north, a series of shortwave troughs were moving
in the stronger westerlies near the US/Canadian border. At the
surface, a wavy frontal zone extended from New England into the
Great Lakes and then to the Central Plains to Rockies. Meanwhile,
sfc high pressure was centered over the southeast and extended
into eastern KY and the Appalachians. Under sunny skies and south
to southwest winds combined with daytime heating, temperatures
outside of the highest terrain have climbed well into the 80s.
This evening and tonight, the axis of the 500 mb ridge is expected
to shift east of eastern KY, while remaining in place from TX
into the Southeast. At the same time, shortwaves pass by to the
north and this combination will allow the boundary initially to
the north and west to sag south of the Great Lakes. Moisture will
also begin to increase from west to east near the 850 mb level
late tonight on southwesterly to westerly flow aloft. Locally,
winds should slacken near sunset and allow for at least a small to
possibly moderate ridge/valley temperature split in the southeastern
counties. Some mainly patchy valley fog could develop in this
area as well.
On Wednesday, guidance brings a shortwave across the Lower OH Valley
region in advance of the trough moving east from the western Conus
and an upper low reaching the Four Corners region/CO. Ahead of the
sagging front and the shortwave to cross the area during the
afternoon and evening, moisture continues to increase in the
vicinity of the 850 mb level and through the column. This will
result in a few low to mid level clouds as early as around dawn
and into the day on Wednesday. By around sunset, PW per the 12Z
HREF will have continued to increase to around 1.4 inches near the
VA border to around 2.1 inches near and north of the I-64
corridor or roughly the 93rd to 99th percentile for mid October.
Meanwhile, daytime heating should again result in temperatures
reaching the 80s. Recent guidance such as the RAP have MUCAPE
climbing to around 1000J/kg or more in the north and west, with
bulk shear around 20KT. Some convective allowing model runs have
some sporadic gustiness in or near the northern counties. Nearer
to the sagging boundary in the more northern and western locales,
a storm or two with gusty winds and locally heavy rain rates is
possible. A marginal SWODY2 is in place across northern sections
of the area, while WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
over northwestern sections of the area.
For Wednesday night, the 500 mb trough remains from portions of
Canada into northern sections of the Plains to the southwest
Conus, while the upper ridge remains across the Southeast. This
will result in the boundary slowing down and possibly stalling
over northern sections of the area. Per the 12Z HREF, PW should
remain roughly 1.75 to the 2.1 inch range or between the 97th to
99th percentile range. Chances for showers will linger through the
night, particularly in the north, with the boundary in the
vicinity and the moist airmass in place. These chances may not
reach the far south nearer to the axis of the 500 mb ridging.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 613 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
The long term forecast period is defined by a significant change in
sensible weather conditions across Eastern Kentucky. While the
period begins on an unseasonably warm and wet note on Thursday, a
potent cold front should sweep through the area on Friday and usher
in a noticeably cooler and drier airmass for the weekend. In fact,
Saturday's forecast features the coldest temperatures of the season
thus far. A widespread frost is looking increasingly likely on
Saturday night, but temperatures are forecast to moderate back
towards climatological norms under fair skies early next week.
When the period opens on Thursday morning, the boundary responsible
for Wednesday's convection will likely be stalled out in the
vicinity of the Ohio River Valley. Its parent shortwave disturbance
will have propagated off to the NE aloft, leaving zonal flow in
place over the forecast area. So, in the absence of meaningful
advection, rain chances remain in the forecast on Thursday. The
highest PoPs are resolved closer to the stalled boundary in the
northern half of the forecast area, but this does not align with the
warmest temperatures. Persistent sky cover should limit highs to the
upper 70s/near 80 in the places that are most likely to experience
additional rain showers. While those forecast highs are still above
average for this time of year, they are 5+ degrees cooler than they
were on Wednesday. This corresponds with a lower risk for heavy
rainfall and stronger storms, and the risk for hazardous weather
appears low on Thursday.
The attention subsequently turns upstream towards the Great Plains,
where the next impactful storm system will be setting up. A sharp
trough ejecting southeast out of Canada will phase with a leeward
Rocky Mountain trough to yield a deeper, positively-tilted feature
over the Upper Midwest on Thursday evening. Vertically-stacked
southwesterly flow around the base of that trough will advect warm
air into the atmospheric column over the Ohio River Valley. The
aforementioned boundary is accordingly forecast to lift back north
as a warm front on Thursday night, and a deepening surface low
should emerge over the Great Lakes by Friday morning. In response to
the tightening pressure gradient, winds will become breezy
overnight. This will prevent the area's conventional ridge-valley
splits from materializing in this time frame, as the boundary layer
should remain well mixed. Given the lack of decoupling and the warm
air advection regime in place, Thursday night's temperature forecast
looks unseasonably mild. Expect a muted diurnal heating curve, with
lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday's high temperatures will be pretty similar to Thursday
night's lows, as the cold front associated with this system will be
on the doorstep of the JKL CWA on Friday morning. There should be
enough forced lift for some generic rain showers over the CWA during
and after Friday's frontal passage, but the greatest impacts from
this boundary will stem from its cold air advection. The sharp
nature of the parent troughing aloft and the fairly tight surface
pressure gradient in this set up collectively suggest that there
will be a pronounced shift from breezy southwesterly winds to
gustier northwesterly winds as frontal passage occurs on Friday.
Northwesterly wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range are likely on Friday
afternoon/evening before the pressure gradient weakens overnight.
The winds will retain their northwesterly orientation through
Saturday morning, which will help them usher a noticeably cooler and
drier airmass into the region for the weekend. That efficient cold
air advection may actually cause temperatures to decrease during the
afternoon hours on Friday, with widespread temps in the 50s by
Friday evening and the 40s on Saturday morning.
Northerly winds associated with a post-frontal surface high will
keep the cold air advection going on Saturday. High temps will
struggle to make it out of the 50s, and afternoon dewpoints should
plummet towards the low/mid 30s area-wide. Under mostly clear skies
and slackening winds, Saturday night looks to be the coldest night
of the season thus far. Efficient radiational cooling and those dry
dewpoint values favor widespread low temperatures in the 30s and
frost potential in more than just the typical cold spots. Near-
freezing temperatures cannot be ruled out in the most sheltered and
shadiest valley locales, but a widespread freeze appears unlikely.
Nevertheless, frost/freeze headline products will need to be
considered as this time frame approaches and forecast confidence
continues to improve. Agricultural interests and recreational
gardeners are accordingly encouraged to review any relevant frost
preparedness plans and stay tuned for potential product issuance.
The progressive nature of the overarching synoptic weather pattern
prevents this chillier air from becoming permanent. It is not winter
yet, and winter precipitation is not expected. The postfrontal high
should shift east on Sunday as the previous trough axis aloft swings
through New England. Modeled height rises amidst a building ridge
suggest that temperatures will moderate under fair skies in the
latter stages of the forecast period. Expect highs to rebound into
the 60s on Sunday and then towards the 70 degree mark early next
week. Dewpoints will be slow to recover to the pre-frontal values
forecast at the beginning of the period, but the approach of a
southern-stream shortwave trough on Monday should return some
moisture to the column by Monday night. So, while an additional
round of patchy frost is possible in the coldest valleys on Sunday
night, Eastern Kentucky's typical autumnal river valley fog should
return to the forecast on Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
Fog was prevalent in the deep valleys of southeast KY at the start
of the period. It will persist, bringing localized IFR or worse
conditions, and then dissipate during the few hours after
sunrise. It shouldn't affect TAF sites. Aside from fog, conditions
were VFR.
Low end VFR ceilings are expected to make overall progress
southeast into the JKL forecast area during the day. Showers and
scattered thunderstorms are then expected to show up from the
northwest by late in the day and advance southeast into the area
tonight. A deterioration to MVFR (possibly worse) conditions is
forecast at times with the precip this evening, until a further
decline to IFR or low end MVFR occurs as the night goes by.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 14, 4:06 AM EDT---------------
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