JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 11:55 AM EDT116
FXUS63 KJKL 131555 AAB
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather and near record warmth is on tap for today
and Wednesday.
- The next potential for rain arrives from the northwest by late
Wednesday and persists at times through Friday.
- Much cooler weather will arrive for the weekend - likely the
coldest we have seen so far this autumn.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observations and
trends. This led to no substantial changes at this time. A mild
afternoon is in store.
UPDATE Issued at 630 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows an elongated area of high pressure to the
southeast of Kentucky and controlling the weather over this part
of the state. Accordingly, skies have been mostly clear through
the night allowing for good radiationally cooling. This has
resulted in a decent ridge to valley temperature difference and
the formation of locally dense valley fog. Amid light southwest
winds most places, temperatures vary from the mid 50s in the
sheltered valleys to the low and mid 60s on the ridges and over
the more open terrain. Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally a few
degrees lower than temperatures at each reporting site. An SPS is
in effect for the valley fog through 10 am.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, continue in
fairly good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict broad 5h ridging pushing into Kentucky
today from the southwest while a closed low trough digs into the
Desert Southwest. The faster mid-level flow runs from the base of
this trough northeast through the heart of the nation then zonally
east through the northern Ohio Valley. This flow carries
shortwave energy north of the state through Wednesday morning -
topping the Southeast ridge. Then a series of impulses work
closer to Kentucky that afternoon and evening - essentially ending
our period of quiet weather. Still, the small model spread
supports most of the forecast grids coming from unadjusted NBM
data this morning. However, did dry out the dewpoints a bit extra
this afternoon while also adding in some terrain enhancements in
temperatures for the first part of tonight. As for PoPs, did
supplement the NBM with a lean toward the CAMs guidance on
Wednesday allowing for higher values in the northwest along with
an uptick in the QPF.
Sensible weather will feature a some fog in the valleys clearing
out by mid morning revealing mostly sunny skies and warm
conditions as temperatures top out in the mid 80s. For tonight
we will see more radiational cooling, at least initially, setting
up another night of ridge to valley temperature differences and
river valley fog formation. Wednesday will be another warm one
with near record highs again in the mid 80s, for most. The bulk of
any showers or storms will hold off until after dark, but some
may sneak into the northwest parts of the JKL CWA a bit sooner
late that afternoon. For this reason, there is a marginal risk of
severe thunderstorm winds in the northern parts of the area per
SPC later Wednesday along with a threat of excessive rains from
WPC for the same area.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were made to allow for
a bit more afternoon drying in the dewpoints and RH today along
with more in the way of ridge and valley temperature distinctions
tonight. Did end up adjusting the PoPs a bit in the north for
later Wednesday afternoon along with higher QPF for that part of
the forecast area during that time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
The extended portion of the forecast appears to be on track for a
distinct pattern change late in the week as a sharp autumn trough
digs through the Ohio Valley on Friday followed by northwest flow
through the weekend. At the sfc, this will mean a well defined
cold front passing through this part of the state on Friday
setting up chilly nights for the weekend when widespread frost or
even patchy spots of freezing temperatures will be possible late
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The previous long term discussion follows:
The period begins Wednesday with eastern Kentucky situated between
strong yet low-amplitude ridging over the Southeast US and strong
zonal flow to the immediate north, with a mid-level jet streak
situated across the Great Lakes region and a low/trough over
Hudson Bay. Upstream, an upper low is situated over the Four
Corners Region and is ushering a warm moist air mass from the
subtropical East Pacific Ocean into the central US. Meanwhile, an
upper trough is digging southeast through western Canada within an
active northern stream.
Models are in generally good agreement on the overall evolution of
the upper pattern through the long-term period. The passing jet
stream across the Great Lakes will push a cold front south to the
vicinity of the Ohio River Wednesday into early Thursday, before
strong warm advection and the loss of northern-stream upper support
pushes the front back north as a warm front Thursday. Meanwhile, the
western Canada trough will continue digging southeast into the
central US mid-week while partially phasing with and absorbing much
of the energy from the Four Corners low. This will strengthen the
upper trough and sharpen a strong cold front that will barrel across
the Ohio Valley and eastern CONUS late Thursday through Friday.
Transitory ridging moves across the region to end the weekend before
the remnants of the Four Corners low begins to move quickly toward
the Ohio Valley Monday as a weakening southern stream shortwave.
Showers and thunderstorms chances increase Wednesday into
Thursday, especially north of the KY Highway 80 corridor, with
strong warm advection continuing and PWs much higher than normal.
Shower chances end Friday as cold advection upslope activity on
the back side of the cold front as the upper trough passes. Much
above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
are expected Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the front, with lows
in the 60s.
This front will briefly usher in a much colder and drier air mass
for Friday into the weekend. In fact, it is possible that Friday's
highs occur in the morning, with temperatures remaining near steady
or possibly falling through the afternoon as strong cold advection
occurs. Saturday's highs will be the coolest of the Fall season thus
far, likely only reaching the 50s for most locations, with Saturday
night's lows possibly requiring frost and/or freeze hazard issuances
as lows are forecast to drop into the 30s, with some potential for
a few locations to possibly reach near freezing. Warm advection
begins to increase again Sunday into Sunday night, with highs
moderating into the 60s and possibly lower 70s, with overnight
lows Sunday night in the 30s to mid 40s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
Valley fog will be around for another several hours, bringing
localized IFR or worse conditions. The TAF sites should be
unaffected by this fog and stay unrestricted. VFR conditions then
prevail through the period, amid light and variable winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 13, 11:55 AM EDT---------------
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