LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 3:48 AM EDT546
FXUS63 KLMK 120748
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
348 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for visibilities as low as 1/4
mile this morning.
* Otherwise, dry and warm weather will return today and Tuesday,
with rain chances returning by Wednesday and Thursday, along with
the chance of some rumbles of thunder.
* Long range trends suggest lows in the 30s and 40s by the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 343 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Visibility continues to drop quickly across southern Indiana
with fog slowly becoming more prevalent across our Kentucky
counties. Visibilities as low as 1/4 mile is being reported
across many locations which is why the Dense Fog Advisory was
expanded into Indiana. Winds are calm with clear to mostly clear
skies overhead. Good news is that sunshine should mix the fog
away quickly and the Dense Fog Advisory is still scheduled to
expire at 15Z this morning across all areas. There still is
potential for this to be expired early depending on how quickly
we can get the lower levels to mix moisture out.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
===== Foggy Morning Now But Heat Returns Today =====
We can finally say that the remnants of Isaias are getting kicked
out to the east coast. Unfortunately, left over residual moisture at
the surface combined with clear skies overhead have allowed
widespread dense fog to form, at least throughout central, eastern
and southern KY. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for most of
our KY counties as a result and may be expanded for the morning rush
hour. Visibilities have dropped to 1/4 mile in places, with less
prevalent fog in Indiana. Even here though, the usual valley
locations near creeks and streams have formed thick fog. Regardless,
allow extra time to go to work today and increase the following
distance. This is probably said too much but never let your guard
down driving foggy roadways.
Good news is that mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected
today. A very weak mid-high level disturbance will drift high to mid
level clouds in the late morning and afternoon hours from west to
east. As they drift, they'll allow western areas to receive more
peak heating from direct sunlight in the afternoon with highs
reaching the upper 80s with low 80s in the east due to the timing of
the passing clouds. There is a low-end chance (<20%) of some western
communities to reach 90 degrees today. Those that don't see 90 today
will have a higher chance tomorrow. Before then, SW flow will remain
as ridging builds in today and Tuesday with lows Tuesday morning in
the low 60s. With good mixing today, fog probabilities are near zero
or at least well below 20% Tuesday morning.
For Tuesday, highs are quick to jump into the mid to upper 80s
across the entire CWA. SW flow may be a little stronger in western
communities with some communities well west of I-65 having a 40-50%
of reaching 90 Tuesday, which is quite warm for mid-October. Tuesday
ends quietly like today will be with warm overnight lows in the low
to upper 60s.
===== Rain Returns with Major Cool Down by the Weekend =====
As Wednesday arrives, a pattern shift will be ongoing. A battle of
influence between a retreating high to our south and a slowly
advancing trough trying to lift north at the same time arrives on
Wednesday afternoon. Long range models are painting a picture of the
advancing trough slowly pushing east being slowed down. A NE
oriented jet streak on the east side of the trough encourages the
trough to lift north over the northern Ohio Valley. However, this
jet streak may be close enough for our CWA to receive repeated waves
of rain from decaying MCVs and moisture streaming from the Pacific
and Gulf. At this time, it's difficult to determine which passing
disturbance will deposit the most rain. However, latest LREF
guidance shows PWATs exceeding the 99th percentile of climatology
near 2.00" in our Indiana counties and slightly south of the Ohio.
With how warm we will be in the mid to upper 80s, any rain that
approaches brings the threat of storms. However, the best shear will
remain too far north as the jet streak seems pointed towards the
Great Lakes. Additionally, instability seems to be rather weak
though enough will be around for at least some rumbles of thunder.
As this trough slowly trudges east, energy will be transferred to a
developing low somewhere near the Great Lakes, possibly aided with
extra lift from the left exit region of the aforementioned jet
streak. High temperatures are generally slow to cool as the trough
will take a while to clear. The exception to this would be quick-
timed rain-cooled afternoons from passing MCVs. The trough should
clear by Friday as a mostly dry cold front passes through.
With all that said, rainfall totals this week are right-skewed with
the highest totals from LREF ranging 1-3". The consensus is near 0.5-
1", though I'd imagine localized areas of 1-3" are possible should
convection come and go for a couple days. There is a strong signal
of a sharp cool down by the weekend. Frost may be possible as
low temperatures plunge well into the 30s by Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026
Skies have cleared allowing widespread fog to form across almost all
terminals with VLIFR-LIFR visibilities continuing overnight. SDF
will take the longest to fog, having a TEMPO group for 1/2 mile
visibility. Winds will calm or be light overnight and into the
morning. Sometime between 13-15Z, fog will mix away with just a few
high to mid level clouds present in the early afternoon. Winds will
be SW to southerly in the afternoon before becoming light again
Monday night. After Monday morning fog, VFR conditions are expected
into Monday night.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
for KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
for INZ076>079-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BKF
DISCUSSION...BKF
AVIATION...BKF
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 12, 3:48 AM EDT---------------
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