MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 6:11 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...306
FXUS64 KMOB 121111
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
611 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Local drops to
MVFR levels possible between 19z and 02z near the coast with
isolated shra/tsra possible. A seabreeze developing along the coast
in the afternoon will shift general northerly winds around 5 knots
to south to southwesterly around 10 knots closer to the coast as it
moves inland.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
An upper level ridge stretching southwest over the northern Gulf of
Mexico from the open Atlantic is bisected by a shortwave system off
the FL/GA/SC/NC coast this morning. This shortwave system is
expected to weaken into the weekend, allowing the upper ridge over
the Southeast and Gulf to build. A weakly organized surface low
has organized off the Atlantic Seaboard, pushing drier air south
over the eastern half of the Southeast. Southwesterly flow around
a surface ridge stretching west over the Gulf of Mexico is moving
Gulf moisture inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and
western portions of the Southeast, shifting a band of higher
moisture levels ( with precipitable h20 values > 2") along the
coast inland over Mississippi and southwestern-most Alabama. Also
helping to move the moisture inland is a seabreeze forming daily
along the Gulf coast and moving inland today and Saturday. This
unbalanced approach to the moisture along with the upper ridge
building over eastern portions of the Southeast will allow for a
better chance of rain further inland the further west one goes in
the forecast area. Am expecting areas along and north of Highway
84 to see little to no rain today, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible closer to the Mississippi and Alabama
coast. Rain chances see a greater inland coverage for Saturday as
more Gulf moisture works its way inland.
Temperatures remain above seasonal norms as the upper ridge builds,
with mid to upper 90s expected today and Saturday. Heat indices in
the 100 to 105 degree range today rise into the 102 to 108 degree
range Saturday as moisture levels increase. A Heat Advisory will
likely be needed Saturday. Temperatures tonight fall into the low to
mid 70s inland to upper 70s to near 80 along the coast.
A low risk of Rip currents is expected into the coming week, even as
the tidal range increases. Lack of significant swell is the reason.
/16
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
To start the period, an upper level shortwave will be moving east
across the Ohio Vally region and off the Mid Atlantic coast by the
end of the day on Sunday. Meanwhile, upper level riding will be
building over the Southeast and Gulf Coast region by Sunday and
will persist across the area through Wednesday. The ridging will
deflect most of the weak shortwave energy in the flow aloft to
our north from the end of the weekend through Wednesday or next
week. By Thursday of next week, a stronger shortwave trough will
be approaching our area with the upper ridging breaking down.
Precipitable water values initially in the 1.90 inch range on
Sunday increase to the 2.0 to 2.2 inch (possibly even a little
higher at times) range for the remainder of the forecast period.
This deep layer moisture, combined with daytime heating, sea
breeze interactions, and residual outflow boundaries will result
in a typical summertime convective pattern of scattered afternoon
and early evening showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
Wednesday. Daily PoPs in the 30 to 50 percent range will
prevail. By Thursday, as the upper ridging breaks down with the
stronger shortwave approaching and also a surface frontal boundary
beginning to make its way south into the Southeastern CONUS, look
for a possible slight uptick in chances for showers and storms on
Thursday (with a PoP of around 60 percent). The severe weather
risk will generally be low through the period, but localized
storms could be strong enough to produce brief wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours.
Away from storms, which will provide temporary relief from the
summer heat, daytime highs range from the mid to upper 90s. This
combined with surface dewpoints well into the 70s suggest heat
index values will be on the increase in the extended period, and Heat
Advisories may be required. This will be particularly true for our
western and coastal sections of the forecast area (where afternoon
heat indices could return to the 108 to 112 degree range).
Overnight lows will remain rather consistent, ranging from the low
to mid 70s over inland areas to the upper 70s along the coast
(with barrier islands likely remaining in the lower 80s overnight).
DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 458 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
A general westerly component to winds are expected through the
forecast period, with a daytime onshore component, nighttime
offshore component developing. Magnitude is expected to remain
generally light. No impacts expected other than locally higher
winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 96 75 96 76 95 76 95 76 / 30 10 30 10 50 10 60 20
Pensacola 94 77 93 78 94 79 93 78 / 30 10 20 10 50 20 50 30
Destin 93 80 93 80 92 80 92 80 / 20 10 20 10 40 20 50 30
Evergreen 96 72 97 74 96 73 95 74 / 20 10 20 10 50 10 50 20
Waynesboro 97 72 97 74 97 74 96 74 / 20 10 30 10 50 10 50 20
Camden 96 72 98 75 98 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 0 40 10 50 20
Crestview 97 72 98 74 97 74 95 74 / 20 10 30 10 40 10 50 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 12, 6:11 AM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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