JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 5:05 AM EDT586
FXUS63 KJKL 100905
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
505 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy and rainy conditions envelop eastern Kentucky for this
weekend as a strong system, including the remnants of Hurricane
Isaias (currently moving north through Alabama), moves
northeast across the region.
- Southeasterly wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected over
the higher terrain near the KY-VA border from this afternoon
through late tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows the tightening pressure gradient over
eastern Kentucky as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias approach from
the Deep South. Already, plenty of thickening high clouds cover
the area and have essentially put an end to the radiational
cooling and fog potential over the JKL CWA this night. Otherwise,
dry weather will continue for the area through sunrise but not
much beyond that. Currently, temperatures vary from the lower 50s
in the northeastern sheltered valleys where the clouds were
thinnest during the evening to the lower 60s in the south and on
the ridges. Meanwhile, amid east winds of around 5 mph, dewpoints
are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s throughout the area.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in better
agreement aloft this morning through the short term portion of
the forecast compared to 24 hours ago. They now depict the closed
low trough associated with the remnants of the hurricane similarly
lifting northwest from Alabama into western Tennessee today before
shifting more easterly tonight and running over eastern Kentucky
on Sunday - moving steadily off to the northeast by evening. Given
the pretty good agreement now and the relatively small model
spread, most of the forecast grids again came from unadjusted NBM
data this morning. However, did include higher wind and wind gusts
from this afternoon through Sunday adhering closer to the 90
percentile values from the NBM. Did not see any reason to adjust
the temptress and dewpoints through the period. As for PoPs, they
were enhanced with some of the latest data from the CAMs today
through Sunday.
Sensible weather will feature a wet and increasingly breezy day as
the remains of Hurricane Isaias move slowly through the area
arriving in the southern parts of the CWA shortly after sunrise.
The steadiest rains will fall in the morning and early afternoon
before they become more variable but also showing more potential
for taller convective elements and thunderstorms with locally
heavy rains. This continues to be the case through the night with
some gaps in the steadier rains anticipated. However, a renewed
surge of precipitation late tonight could bring some of the
heaviest of this event during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday -
associated with the core of the sfc low pushing into eastern
Kentucky. The pcpn will start to wane in coverage into the
afternoon - generally from west to east as the sfc low starts to
pull away to the east. Throughout the passage of these remains,
winds will be quite breezy with highest values expected on the
ridges near Virginia especially for Harland and Letcher counties.
For this reason they are in a long fuse Wind Advisory while the
rest of the area's winds are addressed by an SPS with special
emphasis on Pike County for some of the higher gusts outside of
the advisory.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were made to the winds
and wind gusts - toward the NBM 90 percentile grids this afternoon
through Sunday. The PoPs and QPF were also adjusted with
consideration from the latest consensus CAMs guidance
.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
The extended portion of the forecast looks to be on track with
the idea of the area drying out in the wake of Isaias as ridging
aloft builds into the state from the southwest - for at least a
brief amount of time. Nearer to the sfc, a nearby front,
initially to the north of Kentucky, could drift further south into
our region for the middle to latter part of the week but
uncertainty abounds.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Our primary feature starting the long term period will continue to
be the remnant low from Hurricane Isaias. The stacked low is
expected to be over or near central KY around dawn on Sunday. By
that time, drier air will be wrapping around and into the system's
weakening circulation, with latest guidance suggesting this drier
slot passing northeast over the JKL forecast area Sunday morning.
Eventual details of timing, track and strength of the remnant low
are not locked in, and that will determine where and when features
affect us. That being the case, the POP remains elevated through the
day on Sunday (even through there may very well be a break in precip
for a time). Have tried to hold the highest (categorical) POP with
the greater moisture still surrounding the remaining core of the
system as it passes through around mid day and afternoon on Sunday.
The strongest winds should be finished by Sunday, and it looks like
there's a lack of deep instability. So, the character of the day
appears to be showery with limited warming.
The circulation should be departing to our northeast by Sunday
evening, with the back edge of the precip forecast to be over the
eastern portion of the JKL forecast area by then. It will probably
end during the night, but a few light showers can't be ruled out yet
on Monday morning over the eastern tip of the state. Transient
ridging then passes over from west to east during the day Monday,
with warm air advection becoming pronounced once the low level
ridging slips past by late in the day. Low level moisture (with
surface dew points in the upper 50s/lower 60s) is expected to linger
in the wake of the tropical system, but very dry air aloft should
make a comeback with the arrival of the mid-upper level ridging.
This keeps us mild and dry at least into the day Tuesday.
After this point, the forecast becomes more uncertain as model
discrepancies come into the picture. The uncertainties initially
involve a cold front moving into the Ohio Valley from the northwest
by late Tuesday, and how much southeastward progress this front
eventually makes. Other issues arise with model differences in the
timing/positioning of a strong upper trough expected to develop
southeastward across the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS at the end
of the week, and its influence on its associated cold front. The
model blend represented in the forecast is very much subject to
change with time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
At the 06Z issuance time, VFR conditions were in place across
eastern Kentucky and at this point, VFR is expected to prevail
through at least 18Z. High clouds will thicken and lower into the
morning, though and eventually, light rain, with the remnants of
Hurricane Isaias, develop for most locations between about 14Z
and 20Z. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out between
18Z and the end of the period. Additionally, variable to easterly
and southeasterly winds at generally 5 kts or less will intensify
during the 09Z to 15Z timeframe to around 10 kts with gusts of 15
to 25 kts anticipated. A further increase in easterly to
southeasterly winds to the 7 to 15 kts range and gusts as high as
20 to 30 kts is expected thereafter. Meanwhile, later tonight,
CIGs will fall into the IFR or lower levels amid ongoing rains.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 5 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ087-088-
118.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL/GREIF
AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 10, 5:05 AM EDT---------------
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