JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 7:45 AM EDT515
FXUS63 KJKL 091145 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Generally dry weather with mild days and cool nights holds
through late tonight.
- Breezy and rainy conditions expected this weekend as a strong
system, including the remnants of Hurricane Isaias (currently
in the Gulf), moves northeast across the region.
- There is still considerable uncertainty with this system and
potential impacts, and forecasts will become better refined as
the event nears.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 445| AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure centered northeast of
Kentucky well in control of the weather for eastern Kentucky.
This has resulted in a night of light winds, good radiational
cooling and some patchy fog developing in the river valleys.
However, high clouds - somewhat connected to the tropics and the
circulation of Hurricane Isaias - are affecting the southeastern
2/3rds of the JKL CWA likely hindering some of the fog formation
and overall radiational cooling there. As such, temperatures are
running in the mid 40s in the northeastern sheltered valleys to
the middle 50s on the ridges. Dewpoints are generally in the mid
and upper 40s throughout the area.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict troughing north of the area retreating
northeast in the face of a land falling Hurricane to the south.
The upper level circulation of the tropical system lifts north
through the Deep South later tonight and for the first part of
Saturday. Just ahead of this, eastern Kentucky will see a brief
period of ridging today before these higher 5h heights get
squeezed out by the upper trough arriving from the south. The
models are exhibiting some differences with the core of the
Hurricane's circulation after landfall tonight with the GFS taking
it north a bit quicker than the ECMWF - at least initially. By
00Z Sunday, though, the pattern is fairly similar with eastern
Kentucky facing southerly mid-level flow on the northeast side of
the remaining circulation with the better height falls occurring
to our west through the start of the weekend. On account of the
relatively small model spread, most of the forecast grids came
from unadjusted NBM data this morning. However, did include a
touch of extra terrain distinction for the first part of tonight
along with higher winds and gusts on Saturday. As for PoPs, they
were enhanced with some of the latest data from the CAMs after
12Z Saturday.
Sensible weather will feature one last dry and warm day under the
waning influence of sfc high pressure and also increasing plus
thickening high clouds. For tonight, the thicker clouds will limit
the radiational cooling and valley fog threat for the latter part
of the period. In fact, some of the first - needed - rains of
Isaias's remnants makes it to our southern border just after
sunrise Saturday. Then we can anticipate increasing rains and a
potential for thunderstorms by afternoon lasting into that night.
The rains will be accompanied by steady easterly winds and some
gustiness - especially in the higher terrain near the Virginia
border where some wind gusts may exceed 40 mph for a time into
Saturday evening. While tropical rains are usually a big concern
for flash flooding, dry antecedent conditions and a strong
downslope component will likely spare the most of the area from
the heavier rains. Even so, WPC has much of the JKL CWA in a
Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from Saturday morning through
Sunday morning. With the rains around on Saturday, temperatures
will end up on the cool side of normal - upper 60s - for most
while we will be warmer than typical today - upper 70s.
The main changes to the NBM starting point were made to
temperatures and dewpoints - adjusted the T grids for the start of
tonight with extra terrain details, In addition, the dewpoints
were slightly lowered this afternoon. As for PoPs, beefed them up
with the inclusion of CAMs guidance on Saturday. Finally, did
also push the winds and wind gusts toward the NBM 90 percentile
grids on Saturday.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
The extended portion of the forecast looks to be on track with
the idea of the remains of Isaias exiting to the east Sunday and
early Monday followed by drying in its wake as ridging aloft
builds into the state from the southwest. A nearby front,
initially to the north of Kentucky, could become a factor in our
weather by the middle of next week.
The previous long term discussion follows:
At the start of the extended period, all eyes will shift
towards the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. Model and ensemble
guidance continue to meander west and east with the storm track as
Isaias approaches the Gulf coastline. Previous guidance has
generally continued shifting the expected path west; however,
some of the latest 12Z guidance has trended back east a bit. As
Hurricane Isaias makes landfall and starts its trek north towards
the Tennessee Valley, it will be greeted by the subtropical jet
and enter a highly sheared environment. This will help weaken the
storm as it gets closer to eastern Kentucky. This will occur as
an amplified upper-level ridge across the Eastern US, with 500 mb
heights over the Commonwealth near 584-588 dam early on Saturday,
slowly departs northeast.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread initially across the
area from south to north on Saturday (then southeast to northwest
at times) under downsloping easterly or southeasterly winds.
Winds should gradually increase through the afternoon, peaking
between midnight and 8 AM Sunday. These easterly gusts could
generally range from 20-30 mph away from the high terrain
bordering Tennessee and Virginia. For those high terrain areas
near the state border with Tennessee and Virginia, wind gusts of
35-45 mph are becoming more probable, with the NBM, LREF, and REFS
ensembles all showing at least a 55% chance of exposed mountain
tops near Cumberland, such as Black Mountain, seeing wind gusts
around or north of 40 mph. The peak gust timing in these areas
ranges from 8 PM Saturday through 8 AM Sunday. Looking at model
soundings near Bell, Harlan, and Letcher counties, winds aloft
were as strong as 50-55 mph just below the the top of the
inversion, with stable lower levels and conditionally unstable
layers with weaker winds further above the inversion. Mountain
waves could be a possibility, which will be something that bears
watching as higher-resolution model runs become more readily
available.
With downslope flow expected, lower sfc dew points than NBM
deterministic are probable. To account for this on both Saturday
and Sunday, forecasted dew points were lowered below the
deterministic NBM using raw model guidance. Low temperatures will
generally remain in the upper 50s to low 60s both Saturday and
Sunday nights. Previously, high temperatures Saturday were wide-
ranging as the ensembles had upper 60s to mid-80s as possibilities.
This was largely due to variability in timing for the storms
arrival to the area. A sooner arrival meant more clouds and lower
temperatures, whereas a delayed arrival led to more sunshine and
ample heating into the mid-80s. However, the latest guidance has
started to come into better agreement, narrowing the spread into
the upper 60s to low 70s. Keep in mind the above scenarios can
still drive high temperatures up or down based on when the
remnants of Isaias work in here. Latest data has trended toward a
quicker arrival and thus a cloudier start to Saturday. For this
reason, high temperatures were lowered from the upper 70s in
yesterdays forecast to the low-to-mid 70s for this package. The
low 70s are around the 75th percentile of model and ensemble
guidance.
As low-level flow turns southerly around the departing high, deep
moisture associated with Isaias will begin creeping northward.
PWATs will climb toward 1.0-1.3 inches near the Tennessee border
by Saturday morning, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances to
the area from the south. The timing of rain arrival will be
earliest along the state line with Tennessee and Virginia,
potentially starting as early as 6-8 AM Saturday. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase through the day Saturday,
overnight, and into Sunday. By the time the system reaches the
Tennessee Valley to Lower OH Valley on Sunday, it becomes post-
tropical and follows the upper-level westerly and southwesterly
flow east into the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday. Rain is likely
across eastern Kentucky through much of Sunday, accompanied by
isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances.
Broad southwesterly flow aloft between the Atlantic ridge and
western troughing will help channel the tropical moisture plume
from the Gulf low into the Ohio Valley. This will surge PWAT
values across the JKL CWA Sunday morning into early Sunday
afternoon, with forecasted PWATs falling within the 90th
percentile. Current guidance shows the heaviest rain falling
Saturday evening through Sunday morning. The WPC has a Day 3
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for all of eastern Kentucky
for the 8 AM Saturday through 8 AM Sunday timeframe. Currently,
much of the heavier rain should remain in the Bluegrass, including
the I-64 corridor and along/west of I-75. As the system pushes
east of the area, wrap around flow may produce lingering showers
into Monday morning across portions of eastern Kentucky near the
West Virginia and Virginia borders.
Monday through Wednesday, high pressure builds into the area in
the wake of the departing system for Monday afternoon into early
Tuesday. Clouds will decrease heading into Monday evening, with
fair conditions lasting through Tuesday. A cold front does drop
southeast into and perhaps south the Ohio Valley region around
midweek, but current guidance keeps the area dry as upper ridging
builds across the Southeast. Another system could approach the
area by the tail end of next week as models show another surface
low transiting portions of the Central Conus. Temperatures Monday
through Thursday will generally range from the 70s to low 80s
during the day, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
At 12Z issuance time, VFR conditions were in place across eastern
Kentucky and are expected to persist throughout the period at the
TAF sites. Any valley fog will clear out by 14Z. Light and
variable winds will persist through around 14Z, before they
become easterly at less than 10 kts through the rest of the
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 9, 7:45 AM EDT---------------
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