ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 7:27 PM EDT143
FXUS61 KILN 042327
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
727 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A weak cold front will progress through the region this evening,
ushering in a reinforcing dose of seasonably cool and dry air. Some
very patchy frost cannot be ruled out Monday night. High pressure
will quickly build back into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with
minimal rain chances through the upcoming workweek.
2) Rain chances will likely return to the region next weekend, with
steady rain possible at times, especially by Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1)
A midlevel trof will dig into the Great Lakes and interior NE CONUS
this evening into tonight, with an attendant cold front sweeping
through the OH Vly during this time. This FROPA will provide a
reinforcement of seasonably cool and dry air, which will settle in
through the first part of the upcoming workweek.
The main item of interest through the next few days will be the
potential for some patchy frost to develop, especially in
rural/sheltered spots, for Monday night. The center of sfc high
pressure will be drifting just east of the ILN FA toward 12z Tuesday,
with clear skies and calm winds creating favorable conditions for
some patchy frost to develop. This will primarily be a concern in
sheltered/low-lying areas and for spots near/north of I-70, with
probs for minimum temps at/below 38F between 20-30% by daybreak
Tuesday in these areas. Adjusted overnight temps toward NBM 25th
percentile to account for this setup. These temps, alongside ideal
radiational cooling conditions, pose a scenario where some patchy
frost will be possible in an isolated capacity. There isn't quite
enough confidence in the coverage or potential for frost to add to
the official fcst or even the HWO, but it is mentioned here for
general awareness. Some patchy frost cannot be ruled out again
Tuesday night into Wednesday, primarily for low- lying/sheltered
areas of central/south-central OH and NE KY.
After daytime highs in the lower to mid 70s today, below normal temps
are favored both Monday and Tuesday as highs reach into the mid to
upper 60s. Warmer air will slowly build back into the OH Vly midweek
and beyond, with highs reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s by
Wednesday through the remainder of the workweek.
Key Message 2)
By next weekend, a developing low initially over the Gulf and TX
will progress to the N/NE into the OH/TN Vlys, bringing widespread
rain chances back into the region by late Saturday into Sunday. This
will be the next appreciable chance for rain locally, with mainly dry
conditions favored until then.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
River valley fog will be possible at KLUK overnight. Have MVFR tempo
IFR visibilities developing overnight at that location. Elsewhere,
have VFR at the other area TAF sites through the TAF period.
Generally expect clear skies overnight with a few cu developing on
Monday. Winds are expected to be around 10 knots or less through the
TAF period.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...08
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 4, 7:27 PM EDT---------------
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