JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 7:15 AM EDT611
FXUS63 KJKL 061115 CCA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 AM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights holds through the end
of the week.
- Confidence in increasing for rain chances this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
Dry and cool weather with clear skies will continue through
tonight with surface high pressure dominating. A weak warm front
will move north across eastern Kentucky overnight tonight,
representing a return to (slightly) warmer south/southwesterly
near- surface flow and an increase in moisture. This warm front
will move north as a strong mid-level jet stream digs southeast
into the base of a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Depending on
the timing of the warm frontal passage, ridge-valley splits may
become less pronounced in parts of far southern/southeastern
Kentucky tonight, with a bit more of a gradient in temperatures
across the area from north to south.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
The period is expected to begin with an upper level ridge centered
off the southwest U.S coast, with an upper low centered in the
Hudson Bay vicinity and a trough extending into the Upper MS Valley
and parts of the Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure should extend from the Southern Appalachians into the
Atlantic, while a sfc front in advance of troughing extending into
the Upper MS Valley and Great Lakes should extend into northern MI
to the Central Plains. Meanwhile, a lingering frontal zone should
extend across portions of the Gulf.
Wednesday to Thursday night, the upper low in Canada is progged to
become centered in portions of Quebec, while the associated
shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes Wednesday and
Wednesday night, and across portions of the OH Valley on
Thursday. Further west, upper ridging should become centered in
the Pacific to the west and southwest of Baja, with ridging
continuing to extend into the western CONUS. Downstream, by late
Thursday night, a 500-mb trough axis is anticipated from Quebec
into the eastern Great Lakes to Central to Southern Appalachians.
Guidance generally also has a weak upper low in or near TX by
Thursday night and guidance (which now includes the GFS, AI-GFS,
ECMWF, and AI-ECMWF and many of their ensembles) also points
toward possible tropical system formation potentially as early as
this time frame or at least a sfc low somewhere in the central to
southwestern Gulf. Sfc low pressure in advance of the upper low in
Canada and its associated shortwave should move across the Great
Lakes and Northeast, but the southern end will likely become ill-
defined or diffuse as it approaches the OH Valley. A ridge of sfc
high pressure should generally remain through this period in the
southern to central Appalachians with a trend of 500 mb height
rises over the northern portions of the Gulf states into the TN
Valley and Southern Appalachians by later Thursday night.
For eastern KY, the pattern should favor a moderation in high
temperatures beginning Wednesday, and a ridge/valley temperature
split for Wednesday night and probably Thursday night as well.
Overnight lows should tend to moderate as sfc dewpoints inch
upward compared to earlier in the week, but valley fog should
continue to be a feature each night with ridging generally
dominating. The weakening front and passing shortwave could lead
to a bit more cloud cover later Wednesday night into Thursday
morning than currently reflected in sky grids.
Friday to Saturday night, a narrow upper ridge axis that shifts
north is progged by recent GFS and ECMWF runs to be situated from
the Carolinas across the southern Appalachians to near the
confluence of the OH and TN Rivers for Friday to Friday night
while an upper low becomes centered in the Arklatex vicinity by
later Friday night or early Saturday. At that point, moisture
should begin to or have spread to near the Gulf Coast or into the
Gulf coast states and eventually north into the Southern
Appalachians and TN Valley and possibly into the Lower OH Valley
by later Saturday or Saturday night pending the evolution of a
potential tropical system in the Gulf, while the upper low may
move to near the mid MS Valley vicinity by late Saturday night.
Guidance has uncertainty with the strength of this system with the
12Z operational GFS run stronger than the 06Z GFS run or the last
two operational ECMWF runs. Additional 18z and 00z continue to
increase confidence in a potential tropical system and parent low
moving north or northeast toward, and possibly through, the TN
and OH Valley regions. It should be pointed out, however, that
even though guidance is showing this as an increasing possibility,
experience and wisdom suggests waiting to see when or even if an
organized system actually develops in the Gulf within the expected
time frame and its potential feedback with the developing parent
low. However given recent model trends would expect the current
~45 to 50% PoPs arriving Saturday night into Sunday may increase
to near or above 60% with the next forecast package.
By Monday, much of the guidance has the parent low and much of
the moisture tracking east of the area, with upper ridging and
height rises around or near the end of the period just upstream
over the MS Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 713 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
Valley fog will burn off by 14z-15z, with clear skies otherwise
until valley fog develops again tonight, generally from southeast
to northwest. This fog is not expected to impact any terminals.
VFR conditions will prevail outside of valley fog.
Winds will be light through the period, generally from an east to
northeast direction initially but gradually becoming more
southerly by the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...JP/CMC
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 6, 7:15 AM EDT---------------
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