CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 7:28 PM EDT410
FXUS61 KCLE 052328
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major forecast changes needed with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Pleasant fall conditions expected to continue through the
weekend. Patchy frost possible tonight into early Tuesday
morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A Canadian high pressure will linger over the area through
Tuesday before a weak cold front begins to push east across the
area late Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal boundary is not
expected to result in any precipitation. Ahead of it on
Wednesday, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 70s
before falling back into the upper 60s to low 70s on Friday. Low
temperatures will be quite cool, especially tonight into Tuesday
morning as amplified radiational cooling results in some areas
dropping into the upper 30s especially in the typical cooler
spots. Continue to opt for holding off on a Frost Advisory given
the expected scattered nature. Will continue to monitor
conditions over the next couple hours.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR continues. Winds nearly calm overnight become southwesterly less
than 10kts Tuesday. FEW-SCT cumulus FL040 off Lake Erie at
eastern terminals tonight and Tuesday. No ceilings in forecast
but low potential at ERI between 10-16Z.
Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected most of this week.
&&
.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled for the nearshore
waters from Avon to Geneva-on-the-Lake.
Gusty northwest winds across the eastern basin of 15-20 knots
will continue into tonight, resulting in waves of 3-5 feet
pushing into the nearshore. These winds are expected to persist
a bit longer than previously forecast, so the Small Craft
Advisory has been extended until 4Z Tuesday for the waters from
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Ripley New York. As the high pressure
becomes more dominant over the area, winds will weaken across
Lake Erie to 5-10 knots through Tuesday. Late Tuesday, a low
pressure is expected to move east across Canada, ultimately
moving a cold front east late Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead of
this boundary, increased gradient will result in southwest winds
of 20-25 knots Tuesday night through Wednesday. This will
likely need an additional Small Craft Advisory. As the cold
front pushes east, winds will back to be northwesterly and
weaken to 10-15 knots. High pressure returns by the end of the
week and allow variable winds of 5-10 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ148-149.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...26
MARINE...04
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 7:28 PM EDT---------------
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