JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 12:00 AM EDT964
FXUS63 KJKL 050400 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1200 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather with mild days and cool nights is expected for the
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.
UPDATE Issued at 730 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure pushing south into
southeastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the winds and
clear the skies from northwest to southeast with dry air
infiltrating from the north. Currently, temperatures are running
in the mid to upper 60s across the area with low 70s reported at
Somerset. Meanwhile, amid light northerly winds, dewpoints vary
from the upper 40s north to the low 60s in the south. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids as well as tinkering with the fog depiction
and development later tonight where lower dewpoint depressions
and clear skies will allow for it. These minor adjustments have
been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of
the SAFs and zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A weak cold front approaching from the northwest will dissolve as
it arrives tonight. Other than shallow moisture eroding from the
area this afternoon, our atmosphere is dry beneath west northwest
flow aloft, with significant deep moisture supportive of precip
bottled up near and south of a frontal boundary over the Deep
South. This will allow tonight's cold front to be dry and
practically unnoticed. Only limited heating during the day
Sunday in southeast KY will give that area a head start at
cooling tonight, which will promote easier development of valley
fog there. Surface high pressure building east southeast toward
the central Appalachians Monday and Monday night will supply still
drier air which will be realized at ground level as
heating/mixing occurs on Monday. The dry air and good radiating
conditions will set us up for a chilly sunrise on Tuesday, with
some of the coldest valleys potentially bottoming out below 40.
Have held off on the mention of frost at this time, with the
coldest lows in the upper 30s. However, the amount of drying for
Monday (and the subsequent potential for cooling on Monday night)
will need to be watched.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 103 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
As the long term period opens, a vertically stacked low will be
located over eastern Quebec, with broad troughing over the
northeastern CONUS. Farther west, midlevel ridging will be
centered over the western CONUS. Locally, eastern Kentucky will
find itself in a region of inconsequential quasi zonal flow aloft
initially, although by Wednesday, troughing will deepen as an
additional closed upper level low pushes southeast through
Ontario. Flow aloft will briefly become more northwesterly before
the closed Canadian low lifts back northeast, with quasi zonal
flow aloft persisting through the end of the work week. By the end
of the forecast period, ridging does look to build in more from
the east. Perhaps more interestingly, there is some signal that a
disturbance may follow the western periphery of this ridge into
Kentucky this weekend, although uncertainty remains high this far
out.
At the surface, high pressure over southwestern Pennsylvania will
keep winds easterly to east northeasterly on Tuesday, maintaining
a relatively dry air mass (with dewpoints generally in the 40s
across the forecast area). It will feel pleasant, too, with plenty
of sunshine and highs ranging from the low to upper 70s roughly
from the north to the south. Ideal conditions for radiational
cooling will allow for a ridge valley split overnight, with valley
temperatures generally falling into the low 40s. Then, as the
surface high translates eastward, a new area of high pressure will
build to the southwest near the Ozarks, with winds becoming more
southwesterly by Wednesday. Highs will warm into the upper 70s and
low 80s, and dewpoints will also tick up a few degrees; even so,
by the time that a cold front attempts to approach the area
Thursday, atmospheric moisture will be low enough to keep the
frontal passage dry. Behind the front, little change in sensible
weather is expected, with the biggest pattern shift being a day or
so of northerly winds before high pressure again builds in east
of the forecast area and winds become more easterly. Regardless,
temperatures will still remain above average for this time of
year, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The next chance for rain looks to arrive this weekend, with the
most recent model guidance suggesting that a disturbance could
track north towards Kentucky around this time, following the edge
of the building ridge over the Atlantic Coast. Exact details are
sparse at this point, but NBM output suggests chance PoPs by
Sunday, and this is corroborated by a signal for notable rain in
ensemble guidance; LREF QPF shows around a 50% chance of at least
half an inch of rain in our southern counties on Sunday, around
the time that anomalous moisture returns to the area (with LREF
mean PW values in the 70th to 80th percentile compared to
climatology). Of course, this comes with the caveat that these
forecast details may change with time, especially this far out.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
Conditions at the start of the period were VFR over roughly the
northwest 2/3rds of the JKL forecast area, and MVFR or worse (due
mainly to ceilings) over the southeast portion of the forecast
area. The sub-VFR conditions were eroding southeastward, and VFR
conditions are expected to progress to the VA border through the
next few hours. This may allow for a brief time of VFR conditions
area-wide before valley fog starts to develop. The fog should
show up first this evening in southeast Kentucky, where the low
clouds take longest to breakup this evening. The low visibilities
will then likely develop northwestward with time bringing
localized IFR or worse conditions. The most likely TAF sites to be
affected by dawn are KSJS and KSME/KLOZ. The fog will dissipate
on Monday morning, leaving VFR conditions through Monday evening
and beyond. Winds will be less than 10 kts through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 5, 12:00 AM EDT---------------
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