LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 3:37 PM EDT709
FXUS63 KLMK 031937
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
337 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Pleasant weekend in store outside of some scattered rain chances
across southern KY later tonight into Sunday. Look for highs in
the 70s.
* Early next week, clear skies and cooler temperatures return with
low temperatures in some areas dropping into the 40s/low 50s
Monday and Tuesday night.
* Wed-Sat brings a return of the 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 40s/50s; next weekend brings our next chance for rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
It's a pleasant day across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky as the area of lower clouds has pushed southward into
southern Kentucky. Temperatures have climbed into the upper 60s/low
70s, with 7-12 mph northeasterly winds. While some lingering clouds
could persist into tonight south of the Parkways, some clearing
should allow more places in the southern ports of the CWA to
experience some sunshine.
For tonight and into tomorrow, a couple of features will skirt by
the region before surface high pressure gets reinforced. A shortwave
trough and associated weak surface cold front will swing over the
Great lakes Region, grazing the far northern portions of the CWA.
Another weak wave will pass through the Tennessee Valley, with both
features exiting off to our east by Sunday evening. While the
northern half of the area will contain fairly little moisture aloft,
the northern periphery of a moisture field that extends south to the
Gulf will provide enough moisture (1-1.5" PW) to allow for slight
chances of rain showers early Sunday morning into early Sunday
afternoon near the Lake Cumberland region. For places north, expect
a dry and mostly sunny day with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Some
patchy river valley fog is also possible tonight, especially for
places that get calm winds and clear skies.
With surface high pressure being reinforced over the region
beginning Sunday night, another stretch of dry and comfortable
conditions will be in store. Weaker NNE flow will prevail through
the early portions of the week, and with decent radiational cooling
expected Monday and Tuesday night, temperatures will fall into the
40s/low 50s. Recent guidance did hint at the potential for upper 30s
lows Tuesday morning near the Bluegrass Region, but recent
deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended away from this
solution, shifting the area of coldest temperatures off to the north
and east. Daytime temperatures will be close to normal for this time
of year through Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 70s along and
north of I-64 and in the mid to upper 70s for places south.
The area of surface high pressure shifts to the east by Wednesday,
allowing southerly flow to return to the region. Afternoon highs
Wednesday and Thursday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s, increasing
into the low to mid 80s by Friday and Saturday. Decent radiational
cooling will keep temperatures on the cooler end, with lows in the
upper 40s/low 50s forecast. Saturday morning temperatures will be
slightly warmer, with lows in the low to mid 50s expected. While
there is uncertainty on the arrival, our next chance for potential
rainfall comes late Saturday into Sunday as a surge of tropical
moisture pushes northward towards the region.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
VFR conditions currently prevail over SDF, LEX, and HNB as a layer
of lower-level clouds pushes southward through southern Kentucky.
RGA and BWG will be under this layer for the next couple hours with
MVFR ceilings, clearing out after 20z. VFR conditions will continue
across all terminals through 06z before lower cloud cover begins to
redevelop in southern Kentucky. BWG and RGA will lower to MVFR
ceilings, with patchy fog potentially developing near RGA and LEX.
A few light showers could develop in southern Kentucky tomorrow
morning and early afternoon, but confidence was too low to include
in any of the TAFs. 8-10 kt NE winds with brief gusts will continue
through this afternoon before dropping below 6 kt tonight. Winds
tomorrow will be calmer and out of the north at around 4-7 kt.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BEN
AVIATION...BEN
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Oct 3, 3:37 PM EDT---------------
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