Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1440 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE184
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1440
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
600 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026
Areas affected...central Gulf Coast into FL Panhandle
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 040959Z - 041420Z
Summary...A localized flash flood threat will continue for at
least another 3-5 hours across portions of the central Gulf Coast
into the western FL Panhandle. Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches
(locally higher) should be expected.
Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and GLM imagery at 0930Z
showed a low to mid-level vorticity max just west of Mobile Bay,
tracking toward the northeast. This feature was embedded along a
broader low to mid-level trough axis that was located along the
central Gulf Coast. The coldest cloud tops on infrared imagery
combined with GLM data showed an area of likely heavy rain just
offshore of the western FL Panhandle between Miramar Beach and
Saint Joseph Bay, advancing toward land.
Blended TPW imagery and GPS data showed that precipitable water
values remained high, between 2.3 and 2.5 inches along the Gulf
Coast from MS to the western FL Panhandle but SPC mesoanalysis
data from 09Z indicated appreciable instability remained limited
to the immediate coastal locations with ~500 J/kg. Inland of the
coast, MLCAPE values were 250 J/kg at the highest. Broad upper
level jet induced divergence will continue across the central Gulf
Coast through mid-morning which should provide increased ascent
over the region.
Scattered regions of heavy rainfall are expected to continue
advancing into the western FL Panhandle, ahead of and east the
vorticity max (aligned with the greatest low level moisture
transport) with rainfall intensity decreasing with northward
extent. Back to the west, while 0930Z cloud tops and available
radar imagery were not indicative of heavy rain across southern
MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, weak low level
convergence over the next few hours may allow for isolated
development of heavy showers/thunderstorms later this morning with
efficient rainfall production. Peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3
inches (locally higher possible) will remain a concern which could
result in isolated spots of flash flooding through at least 14Z.
Otto
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 30998837 30978749 30808582 29798534 29608568
29958656 30108744 30138813 30018890 30008921
30178945 30548946 30818905
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1440 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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