WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Oct 4, 8:24 PM CDT801
AGUS74 KWCO 050127
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #236 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
824 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Locally considerable flash and urban flooding
possible
WHERE: Central Gulf Coast
WHEN: Into tomorrow morning
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS:
QPF: 2 - 4", locally higher (HRRR)
QPE: 1 - 4" (Rain gage observations)
Rainfall Rates: 1 - 2"/hr, locally higher (HRRR)
Soil Moisture: Around 70 -95% (0 - 10 cm RSM, NASA SPoRT)
DISCUSSION...
Locally considerable flash and urban flooding impacts remain possible
across the area of concern into tomorrow morning. Heavy rainfall
rates continue across coastal Mississippi/Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle, and could overwhelm the infiltration rate/capacity of
soils leading to efficient runoff processes. Urban centers,
particularly Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL, are the most likely
locations to see significant impacts given recent data.
The National Water Model (NWM) short range forecast (SRF) has
consistently highlighted the Gulf coast from far southern Mississippi
into the Florida Panhandle east of Pensacola Bay. Rapid-onset
flooding (ROF) probabilities have ticked up in recent runs and are
now in the 25 - 75% range, and corresponding annual exceedance
probabilities (AEPs) remain in the 10 - 2% range, but have not been
consistent with exact placement.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: water.noaa.gov/operations/ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Bliss
ATTN...WFO...LIX...BMX...MOB...TAE
ATTN...RFC...ORN...ALR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Oct 4, 8:24 PM CDT---------------
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