MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 1:16 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...184
FXUS64 KMOB 101816
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
116 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024
Mostly VFR conditions were noted across the area this afternoon.
Brief reductions to ceilings and visibilities remain possible
around any lingering showers or storms along the coast this
afternoon. Rain chances diminish by this evening with VFR
conditions prevailing overnight. Light northerly winds today
generally continue through the period. /14
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024
A surface boundary continues to slowly push across the forecast
area this morning and afternoon trailing from the remnants of
Beryl. This feature will serve as the delineation between
drier/warmer weather to the north and wetter/slightly cooler
weather to the south. Expect generally isolated shower and storm
coverage over interior portions of the forecast area today with
highs in the lower 90's. Further south nearer the coast we will
likely see another day of scattered to locally numerous showers
and storms with highs topping out in the upper 80's. As the
boundary becomes increasingly diffuse late this afternoon into the
evening, expect convective coverage to wane with only isolated to
scattered showers and storms by late afternoon into early
evening.
We start to see a return to a more diurnally driven cycle with
convection Thursday as early morning showers and storms develop near
or just offshore the AL/FL panhandle coast and gradually works their
way inland by the afternoon. Once again at best expecting scattered
to locally numerous showers and storms near the coast around or just
after daybreak becoming mostly scattered coverage by the afternoon
hours for most of the forecast area. Highs Thursday will be a little
warmer in the lower to middle 90's, warmest over the interior, after
starting the day in the lower to middle 70's.
A high risk of rip currents continues today for Alabama and Florida
Panhandle beaches as light to moderate onshore flow persists. The
risk drops to a moderate tonight into Thursday as winds relax and
become more parallel to the shoreline.
Additionally, similar to yesterday morning a waterspout or two can't
be ruled out this morning across the bays/sounds and nearshore
waters. Adequate surface vorticity and 3km CAPE values of 125 to
175j/kg will foster the potential for waterspouts through efficient
stretching of environmental surface vorticity underneath any shower
or storm with a robust enough low level updraft. Non-supercell
tornado parameters across the nearshore waters range from 3 to 6
indicating an environment favorable for waterspout development with
any more robust storm updrafts. This potential will likely last
through early morning, quickly diminishing as environmental surface
vorticity and 3km CAPE wanes into the mid to late morning hours.
MM/25
SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 509 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024
An upper trough just to the west of our area will be flattening
out on Thursday night, with an upper level high pressure ridge
then building over the area Friday through late Saturday or early
Sunday. Another upper trough approaches the area from the west
Sunday night into early Monday, moving east across the area
through Tuesday. By Wednesday this feature should be east of our
area, with high pressure aloft rebuilding from the west. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary along the Gulf coast region will
remain nearly stationary while weakening. This feature could act
as a low level focus for the generation of scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day through the period, primarily in the
afternoon and early evening hours and mostly over the southern
half of the forecast area. Afternoon sea breeze boundaries will
also likely act as a low level focus for scattered showers and
storms each day as well. The upper ridging will keep coverage
somewhat scattered (30 to 50 percent range) through most of the
period, with the afternoon PoPs slightly lower over the northern
half of the forecast area. We will continue to see a mainly
diurnal pattern with showers and storms, more numerous over inland
areas during the daytime hours, and along the coast and offshore
during the late night and early morning hours. Hot and humid
conditions will continue as well. Daytime highs will generally be
in the mid 90s through the period, with a few upper 90s possible
inland, but upper 80s and lower 90s along the immediate. May be
again looking at the possibility of Heat Advisory conditions by
the weekend and even more likely into the early and mid part of
next week. Low temperatures will range from the lower 70s inland
to the upper 70s and even a few lower 80s closer to and along the
coast. DS/12
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 92 74 94 76 95 76 96 / 20 50 20 50 10 50 10 40
Pensacola 76 92 77 92 78 93 78 93 / 30 50 20 50 10 50 10 50
Destin 77 91 79 92 80 92 80 93 / 40 40 20 40 10 40 20 40
Evergreen 71 94 71 96 72 97 74 96 / 10 30 0 30 0 30 10 40
Waynesboro 71 95 72 97 73 97 74 98 / 10 20 0 30 0 30 10 30
Camden 71 93 70 95 72 97 73 96 / 0 20 0 20 0 20 10 30
Crestview 72 95 72 97 73 97 74 96 / 20 40 10 40 10 40 10 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 1:16 PM CDT ...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...---------------
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