Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1424 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE661
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MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-020355-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1424
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
558 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026
Areas affected...Illinois
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 012157Z - 020355Z
SUMMARY...Heavy showers and some thunderstorms should increase in
coverage over central Illinois during the next few hours. These
should then extend into northern Indiana and east-central
Missouri. Localized flash flooding is possible through 03Z.
DISCUSSION...Areas of moderate to heavy rain extend along a
stationary front which is in a plume of Gulf-sourced moisture from
eastern Missouri to north-central IL. A few cells have formed in
central IL where afternoon instability increased a bit to around
500 J/kg SBCAPE. The elevated moisture, with PW around 2" over
central IL, will allow heavy rates to increase in coverage
especially over central IL into northern IN into this evening.
Deep layer SWly flow around 40kt will keep convective activity
progressive, but that flow is parallel to the boundary, so
repeating activity is expected. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs indicate
a risk for 1-3" through 03Z from around St. Louis to north-central
IN and into southern Chicago suburbs. Much of this area has not
received much rain over the past week so flash flood guidance is
near normal. Flash flooding is considered possible and overnight
rainfall should trend farther south with the approaching cold
front.
Jackson
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 42048792 41908724 41678624 40958597 39528832
38519040 38529166 38679214 39819173 40459141
40899060 41209005 41558913
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1424 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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