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708 FXUS64 KMOB 101009AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL509 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Thursday)Issued at 509 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024A surface boundary continues to slowly push across the forecast area this morning and afternoon trailing from the remnants of Beryl. This feature will serve as the delineation between drier/warmer weather to the north and wetter/slightly cooler weather to the south. Expect generally isolated shower and storm coverage over interior portions of the forecast area today with highs in the lower 90's. Further south nearer the coast we will likely see another day of scattered to locally numerous showers and storms with highs topping out in the upper 80's. As the boundary becomes increasingly diffuse late this afternoon into theevening, expect convective coverage to wane with only isolated toscattered showers and storms by late afternoon into early evening.We start to see a return to a more diurnally driven cycle with convection Thursday as early morning showers and storms develop near or just offshore the AL/FL panhandle coast and gradually works their way inland by the afternoon. Once again at best expecting scattered to locally numerous showers and storms near the coast around or just after daybreak becoming mostly scattered coverage by the afternoon hours for most of the forecast area. Highs Thursday will be a little warmer in the lower to middle 90's, warmest over the interior, after starting the day in the lower to middle 70's.A high risk of rip currents continues today for Alabama and Florida Panhandle beaches as light to moderate onshore flow persists. The risk drops to a moderate tonight into Thursday as winds relax and become more parallel to the shoreline.Additionally, similar to yesterday morning a waterspout or two can't be ruled out this morning across the bays/sounds and nearshore waters. Adequate surface vorticity and 3km CAPE values of 125 to 175j/kg will foster the potential for waterspouts through efficient stretching of environmental surface vorticity underneath any shower or storm with a robust enough low level updraft. Non-supercell tornado parameters across the nearshore waters range from 3 to 6 indicating an environment favorable for waterspout development with any more robust storm updrafts. This potential will likely last through early morning, quickly diminishing as environmental surface vorticity and 3km CAPE wanes into the mid to late morning hours. MM/25&&.SHORT/LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)Issued at 509 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024An upper trough just to the west of our area will be flattening out on Thursday night, with an upper level high pressure ridge then building over the area Friday through late Saturday or earlySunday. Another upper trough approaches the area from the westSunday night into early Monday, moving east across the areathrough Tuesday. By Wednesday this feature should be east of ourarea, with high pressure aloft rebuilding from the west. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary along the Gulf coast region will remain nearly stationary while weakening. This feature could act as a low level focus for the generation of scattered showers and thunderstorms each day through the period, primarily in the afternoon and early evening hours and mostly over the southern half of the forecast area. Afternoon sea breeze boundaries will also likely act as a low level focus for scattered showers and storms each day as well. The upper ridging will keep coverage somewhat scattered (30 to 50 percent range) through most of the period, with the afternoon PoPs slightly lower over the northern half of the forecast area. We will continue to see a mainly diurnal pattern with showers and storms, more numerous over inlandareas during the daytime hours, and along the coast and offshore during the late night and early morning hours. Hot and humid conditions will continue as well. Daytime highs will generally be in the mid 90s through the period, with a few upper 90s possible inland, but upper 80s and lower 90s along the immediate. May be again looking at the possibility of Heat Advisory conditions by the weekend and even more likely into the early and mid part of next week. Low temperatures will range from the lower 70s inland to the upper 70s and even a few lower 80s closer to and along the coast. DS/12 &&.MARINE...Issued at 509 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024A light to at times moderate southwesterly to westerly flow prevails today before becoming a light westerly to southwesterly flow through the weekend. A waterspout or two can not be ruled out this morning across the marine waters in association with showers and storms given a favorable environment for waterspout development. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 88 74 92 74 94 76 95 76 / 60 20 50 20 50 10 50 10 Pensacola 87 76 92 77 92 78 93 78 / 60 30 50 20 50 10 50 10 Destin 87 77 91 79 92 80 92 80 / 60 40 40 20 40 10 40 20 Evergreen 90 71 94 71 96 72 97 74 / 20 10 30 0 30 0 30 10 Waynesboro 93 71 95 72 97 73 97 74 / 10 10 20 0 30 0 30 10 Camden 91 71 93 70 95 72 97 73 / 10 0 20 0 20 0 20 10 Crestview 89 72 95 72 97 73 97 74 / 60 20 40 10 40 10 40 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
