JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 7:15 AM EDT133
FXUS63 KJKL 141115
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot conditions continue into the middle of this week, with
increasing humidity Monday through Wednesday contributing to
maximum heat indices around 100 degrees.
- The next significant chance of rain will arrive mid-week with
the approach of a cold front producing showers and
thunderstorms.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024
Made some minor edits to the PoPs for this afternoon into the
overnight to better match neighboring offices with regards to both
spatial and temporal extent. Otherwise, no changes were needed,
with the latest observations used to initialize the grids for
continuity.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024
We continue in a pattern with weakly cyclonic flow aloft and weakly
anticyclonic flow in the lower levels, with little in the way of
significant warm moist advection into the eastern Kentucky. This
leaves eastern Kentucky mostly hot and dry through Monday, with the
best chance at any precipitation, though modest at best, coming this
afternoon into the early evening as a disturbance moving east across
the Midwest may allow for an upstream MCS to push into the northern
half of the forecast area from the northwest. This activity would
almost assuredly be weakening and then dissipating as it moves into
the area, if it even makes it this far. Monday appears dry though
if a shower or thunderstorm were to occur in the late afternoon
it would most likely be over the high terrain near or along the
TN and VA borders.
Fog development tonight beyond the typical river valleys would
likely be dependent on whether shower and thunderstorm activity
reaches the area this afternoon into early evening.
Highs today will reach the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, but rise
into the mid-90s with a couple of upper-90s sprinkled in Monday.
With a slight rise in humidity Monday, heat indices will approach or
reach 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be mild with lows around 70
degrees, with mid to upper 60s in the typically cooler sheltered
valleys.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 523 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024
The 14/00z model suite upper level analysis beginning Monday
evening shows ridging extending from the Atlantic into the far
Southeast US with some relative troughiness over the Lower
Mississippi Valley before heights climb again toward an ~595 dam
high over the Four Corners. Well to the north an ~556 dam low is
embedded in a digging trough dropping out of northern Manitoba
toward the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure
centered of the open Atlantic extends westward into the Southeast
CONUS. Meanwhile, an ~1000 mb surface low is passing over Lake
Superior. A cold front trails southwest from this low back to near
Kansas City then west and northwest to along the eastern foothills
of the Northern Rockies.
Moisture levels will continue to rise across the Ohio Valley on
Monday night and Tuesday as southwesterly return flow continues to
pull in higher humidity. Isolated deep convection is possible by
the afternoon hours on Tuesday, but the lack of a forcing
mechanism favors initiation mainly occurring over higher terrain
near the Virginia border. Given increasingly high instability and
plenty of mid-level dry air but only weak shear, any storms on
Tuesday could pose a localized strong to damaging wind threat as
they collapse. The more widespread rain threat doesn't come until
late Tuesday night and Wednesday when more numerous showers and
possible thunderstorms impact eastern Kentucky just ahead of and
along the cold front. Mid-level winds increase slightly on
Wednesday leading to slightly better shear ahead of the front's
parent upper level trough, perhaps supporting semi-organized
multicellular storm structures. Again though, any strong to severe
wind threat appears isolated. After PoPs peak in the 70 to 90%
range on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold front, rain chances
will diminish later in the evening and Wednesday night as the
front presses through eastern Kentucky. The boundary eventually
hangs up just south and east of our region and wavers right
through the upcoming weekend as upper level troughing prevails
over the Ohio Valley. Diurnal heating and disturbances passing
aloft will act as a trigger for daily shower and thunderstorm
threat through Saturday with the highest chances in counties
adjacent to Virginia and nearest to the wavering frontal
boundary.
Aside from the threat for rain, the air mass behind our mid-week
cold front will be noticeably cooler than what has been seen lately.
Prefrontal high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach the
middle 90s at most locations with heat indices peaking within a few
degrees of 100F. That kind of heat will just be a memory come
Thursday when eastern Kentucky is forecast to only see highs in
the mid 70s to around 80. The cooler air also looks as if it will
be sticking around as highs only slowly moderate into the lower to
middle 80s by Saturday. Nighttime low temperatures will also go
from the muggy upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday nights
to the comfortable upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday and Friday
nights.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites. There is a
concern for some fog toward dawn, but with still significant dew
point depressions at all but SME decided to just carry a TEMPO
group for 6SM, and then make amendments as/if needed. Otherwise,
mostly sunny skies are on tap for much of the day Sunday, with a
few mid-level afternoon CU. Light and variable winds will also
persist through the duration of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 7:15 AM EDT---------------
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