JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 25, 5:40 AM EDT245
FXUS63 KJKL 250940
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
540 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High pressure will bring dry and seasonally cool early autumn
weather into early next week.
- Chances for showers could return by the second half of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 525 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
Early this morning, an upper level low and sfc low were located
off the the VA and NC coast while an upper ridge extended from
the TX Gulf coast into the mid MS Valley. A sfc ridge meanwhile,
was centered over Quebec and Ontario and extended into the Great
Lakes and portions of the Upper OH Valley and it and its
significantly drier airmass was gradually building toward the
Lower OH Valley and Commonwealth from the north. Overnight, PW
values have dropped with 0.3 to 0.4 inch range or 10th to 20th
percentile PW analyzed near the northern and eastern parts of
eastern KY with PW ranging to near 0.9 inches or 50 to 55th
percentile for this time of year at this time. Following recent
rainfall, valley fog has developed in parts of the Cumberland and
across the Licking, Big Sandy, and Kentucky basins. A few patchy
stratocu also lingered in parts of the southeast and near the TN
border. Temperatures ranged from the upper 40s at the Big Sandy
airport, Black Mountain KY Mesonet station, and the Bath County KY
Mesonet to the upper 50s to around 60 range near Lake Cumberland
and near the TN border.
Today and tonight, upper ridging/500 mb ridging is expected to
build north from the Southern Plains/northwest Gulf through the MS
Valley and into the western Great Lakes while the upper and sfc
low meander north to southeast of the Delmarva. The upper ridge
axis will remain to the west into tonight while the upper and sfc
low/Noreaster meander further north to southeast of the New
Jersey coast. At the sfc, a ridge of high pressure builds south
into the Commonwealth form Quebec and Ontario and the Great Lakes
with the north to northeast flow in the lower levels and north to
northwest aloft result in the airmass drying today. PW per the
00Z HREF is progged to drop into the 0.3 to 0.6 inch range or
roughly the 5th percentile to 20th percentile for this time of
year. Once valley fog lifts and dissipates today, clear skies
with only a few passing high clouds are anticipated and dewpoints
should drop into the 40s to around 50 degree range. NBM
deterministic values were undercut fro this afternoon in
particular and to a lesser degree tonight as biases dating back
to the summer are likely keeping them too high when compared to
some statistical guidance for instance. Highs should around 5
degrees below normal particularly in northern and eastern
sections, ranging from the in the upper 60s to mid 70S. These
mixed dewpoints will set the stage from colder readings tonight,
with lows dropping into the 40s to around 50. The northern and
eastern valleys and valleys in general should drop a few to
several degrees below NBM deterministic and reach the low 40s
with lows near the 40 degree mark possible in the typical head of
drainage cold spots with ridges near the TN border dropping to
around 50s. The remainder of the area should experience lows in
between these extremes. Valley fog should again be present and
likely to develop as early as near midnight, particularly along
the rivers, area lakes, and along the larger creeks.
On Saturday, the upper pattern changes little with the axis of
upper ridging remaining from the Arklatex to mid MS Valley to
Great Lakes and the upper and lows meandering to south/southeast
of Long Island. The airmass will remain dry across the region with
the sfc ridge remaining from Quebec and Ontario into the OH
Valley. The 00Z HREF has PW values in the 0.25 to 0.45 inch range
or 5th to 10th percentile for this time of year for the
afternoon. Under full sunshine dewpoints should drop to values
near what they do this afternoon in the north and east and trend
lower in the south and near the VA border and the NBM was undercut
a few degrees once again as coordinated with neighbors. This will
again set the stage for another night of below normal lows
Saturday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
The beginning of this period will still be in the northeast flow
regime in the lower levels and northerly flow at 500 mb resulting
in drier and pleasant weather. That said, the northeast flow
results from being upwind of a strong surface low off the New
England coast and between that low and the axis a ridge of sfc
high pressure extending from Quebec across the Great Lakes and
into the TN and OH Valleys. This flow will keep highs roughly 5
to 10 degrees below normal for late September, in the upper 60s to
low 70s for Sunday. Our positioning relative to the New England
low, the upper level ridging extending across the central US to
the Great Lakes, and sfc high pressure extending into the Lower OH
Valley and Commonwealth will keep eastern KY dry for the rest of
the weekend as well. Fog along the river valleys will be likely
Saturday and Sunday Night, but otherwise skies should remain
mostly clear for the remainder of the weekend. It's also worth
mentioning that valley inversions/ridge valley temperature splits
should be present Saturday night and Sunday Night, with lows in
the low to mid 40s in the valleys and upper 40s to low 50s on the
ridges.
The start of the week will also be pleasant with the previously
mentioned upper ridge in the central US migrating east into the
region as the sfc and upper low initially over the Mid Atlantic
states departs to the northeast. This ridge and associated sfc
high pressure will keep conditions dry for the first half of the
week and also help bring about a gradual warming trend. Expect
highs on Monday to be in the low to mid 70s and warming each day
until the 80s return around Wednesday. Ensembles show broad
troughing from the central US at midweek, while the axis of
ridging shifting east. This results in some low end pops as early
as Wednesday. PoPs look to be persistent through the end of the
work week and beyond given uncertainty in the evolution of this
trough and sfc features. Daily rainfall chances from Wednesday
into next weekend does make sense given the broad and elongated
trough that both ensemble and deterministic guidance is suggesting.
This troughing pattern will bring west to southwesterly surface
flow and eventually some Gulf moisture which will allow >60
degree dewpoints to move in mid-late week. These higher dewpoints
will bring a notable increase in humidity as well aside from
rain chances. All in all, expect the return of warmth and
eventually some rain by the end of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
Patches of stratus and stratocu lingered across parts of the north
and southwest at issuance time. Extensive valley fog had formed in
the Big Sandy region and was starting to form in the forks of the
KY and the headwaters of the Cumberland Valley. As the period
began, MVFR was observed at KLOZ and some areas near the TN and VA
borders in the stratocu areas. As a much drier airmass advects in
form the north and northeast, a trend to VFR ceilings is
anticipated. The exception is valley fog that among the TAF sites
should mainly affect KSJS after about 10Z, leading to MVFR to IFR
for a few hours. Valley locations should in some cases experience
LIFR to VLIFR. Fog should lift and dissipate through the 13Z to
14Z timeframe giving way to VFR for the duration of the period at
the TAF sites. Some valleys could experience fog developing again
by around 04Z Sat. Winds will average around 5KT or be light and
variable during the first 8 hours of the period, before increasing
to 5 to 10KT from the northeast to north. Winds should again
slacken back to light and variable to end the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DISINGER/JP
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 25, 5:40 AM EDT---------------
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