IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 7:05 PM EDT293
FXUS63 KIWX 082305
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
705 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
-Dry through this evening with gradually increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances overnight toward daybreak Thursday.
Periodic chances for showers and storms continue through most
of the week.
-A few strong storms with the activity developing late tonight,
mainly south and west of a line from LaPorte, Indiana to Lima,
Ohio. Confidence in severe weather occurring is low at this
time, with the main concerns hail to the size of quarters and
localized damaging wind gusts.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
A rather pleasant day underway with temperatures well into the
70s and a few spots in the lower 80s with comfortable humidity
levels. High clouds have been on the increase from southwest to
northeast originating from vigorous thunderstorm development
over the middle Mississippi River Valley region.
Expect quiet weather with gradually increasing mid level clouds
through this evening. A low level boundary will move into the
region overnight and eventually become a focus for showers and
embedded storms. Timing has been pushed back a bit, and
confidence has taken a hit given varied locations of the low
level boundary by near term models. The best chances for
development are toward daybreak tomorrow and lasting into
tomorrow afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible into tomorrow night, with chances ending
from northwest to southeast Thursday night as an upper wave
finally exits.
The pattern will remain active, with another quick moving wave
within northwest flow aloft will enter late Friday night and
provide another opportunity for scattered showers, perhaps a few
storms during the morning Saturday. Yet another quick moving
shortwave will provide similar shower and embedded storm chances
Sunday night into Monday.
After today's warm temperatures, readings will fall back into
the 50s and 60s Thursday and low 60s for Friday and Saturday.
Warm advection ahead is expected Sunday with highs edging back
toward the 70 degree mark.
The weather pattern next week features more of the same,
periodic shortwave moving through fast flow aloft. This will
bring quick hits for showers and a few storms. Not looking at a
wash out on any given day, but the forecast PoPs are on the
pessimistic side as they are present on a daily basis.
Temperatures look to be above average with highs in the 70s and
lows in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024
A surface low will track south of the terminals and will bring
rain showers, lower/MVFR ceilings and scattered storms starting
overnight. It looks like the lowest ceilings and visibilities
will be during the day Thursday as rain saturates the lower
layers combined with a northeast to east low level flow.
Conditional climatology support MVFR ceilings at 21Z during May
in this scenario. Little if any improvement is expected
Thursday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Gagan/NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
AVIATION...Skipper
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 8, 7:05 PM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
