LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 1:14 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...973
FXUS63 KLMK 240514
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
114 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cooler highs in the mid to upper 60s and isolated low 70s near the
TN border are expected today with spotty to scattered showers east
of I-75.
* Clouds will slowly mix away later on Thursday, with highs in the
70s.
* Cool morning lows in the 40s and 50s with comfortable highs in the
70s are expected this weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
With a low-level inversion, low stratus, and higher low-level
moisture in place tonight, chances for drizzle will continue across
the region. The weather, POP, and visibility grids were updated in
the forecast package to reflect this, as more persistent drizzle
could briefly reduce visibilities at times throughout the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
===== This Evening - Thursday Night =====
Clouds have proven stubborn again, meaning our highs will be cooler
in the 60s today with a few low 70s closer to the TN border. Drizzle
is possible at times this afternoon though everyone west of I-65
should remain dry. Heading east, PoPs slowly increase and reach
their greatest values east of I-75 as an inverted trough helps kick
off spotty-scattered showers. Rainfall totals should remain light,
though should a slow moving shower remain stagnant long enough,
isolated areas could receive more than half an inch of rain,
although there is a 75% of remaining under 0.5" according to HREF
guidance. The best lift remains east of our area so the larger
impact to our weather will be the continued fall-like cloudy weather
this evening and isolated drizzle in spots.
Tonight, the inverted trough begins to slowly weaken through the
night as the influence of a parent high well up into Canada moves
further south towards the US. As this happens, subsidence will
increase and help to slowly break up the clouds into Thursday.
However, this will be a very slow process and everyone should remain
overcast overnight with lows in the low 60s an upper 60s. Patchy fog
may develop, but the larger concern is for low cloud ceilings
Thursday morning.
With increasing subsidence, the main forecast challenge is timing
the breaking up of clouds if at all Thursday afternoon. With no
large overall pattern shift, trapped moisture below 850 mb will have
nowhere to go and rely more on diurnal heating to scour out. That
being said, highs have been decreased and should clouds remain
stubborn, highs in the 60s and low 70s should be expected. For now,
with the uncertainty of how strong the scouring of the clouds will
be, a mixture of Consshort and NBM data was used with highs in the
low to mid 70s. Regardless by Thursday night, clouds begin to clear
east-to-west with coolest lows in the least cloudy communities
overnight in the low 50s across the Bluegrass and near 60 in the
southwest near Bowling Green, KY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026
===== Friday - Late Next Week =====
Heading into Friday, at least partly cloudy skies should be expected
as the high to our north continues to strengthen. At the same time,
an expected surface low should form and rapidly deepen near the NE
US. So, as this low strengthens, pre-existing northerly flow will be
reinforced from this deepening low. This will keep highs nice and
relatively cool in the low to mid 70s from Friday and through
Sunday, finishing the weekend. Without a large change in the
synoptic pattern, pleasant and sunnier skies will be around as we
progress through the weekend.
The pattern shifts by Monday as an Omega blocking pattern emerges
and a ridge moves in over KY/IN. As a result, southerly surface flow
returns and so do highs in the 80s. Especially by Tuesday/Wednesday,
mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to soar into the 80s,
reaching the upper 80s across our south. To close the forecast
period, there is a consistent signal in LREF guidance between all
the long-term models of a strong trough digging through the central
US by late Wednesday into Thursday. Something to keep in mind is
that as the trough approaches, storms may return with the added heat
by midweek and CWA-wide rain chances. Rainfall totals are too
uncertain to predict now, although model solutions are right-skewed
towards more than an inch possible across the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
For the overnight period, a light north-northeast flow will be seen
at the surface with cigs remaining in the low MVFR to IFR range.
Some tempo drops to LIFR will be possible. Areas of light drizzle
and mist will also continue through sunrise. Winds will pick up
Wednesday morning and begin to shift to the east in the late morning
and into the afternoon. Breaks in the cloud cover are expected in
the afternoon with cigs at the terminals expected to return to VFR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......BEN
SHORT TERM...BKF
LONG TERM....BKF
AVIATION.....MJ
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 24, 1:14 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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