IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 6:12 AM EDT036
FXUS63 KIWX 141012
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
612 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* There are periodic chances (30-60%) for showers and storms today
through Tuesday night. Storms could be locally severe with
damaging winds and flooding the primary threats during this
timeframe.
* Hot and humid conditions are expected today and Monday, dependent
on storm coverage and timing. Monday's afternoon peak heat indices
may near 100 degrees.
* Cooler, drier weather is anticipated Wednesday through this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024
An unsettled pattern will linger through at least Tuesday with
numerous convectively aided disturbances tracking east-southeast
over an enhanced theta-e plume draped across the Upper Midwest and
western/southern Great Lakes. Periodically stormy and humid wx will
result with low confidence in daily high temps and convective
chances/intensity as guidance struggles to resolve mesoscale
features (composite outflows) and the low amplitude nature to
convectively modulated perturbations. The result is a forecast
littered by chance PoPs, SPC marginal to slight severe outlooks, and
high humidity.
For this morning, the first outflow dominant MCS is bring decaying
convection into the area. Wind gusts to 30 mph and locally heavy
rainfall remain possible immediately behind the leading sfc outflow.
Outflow stable bubble might put a lid on convection for much of the
day otherwise, though hard to remove PoPs as low level southwest
flow likely erodes MLCIN at some point with renewed scattered storms
possible along the trailing composite outflow boundary. Prospects
for another more organized outflow dominant MCS increases later
this evening into the early overnight.
The local area remains divorced from more favorable deep layer
shear to the northwest tonight through Monday night, with deeper
shear even trailing a stronger synoptic cold front by the
Tuesday/Tuesday evening periods. This would suggest more outflow
dominant convective clusters (isolated strong-severe convection
- wind primary threat) with the lacking shear and impressive
MUCAPE reservoir in the vicinity. With that said, more intense
MCS's can produce a more intense wind field allowing for greater
shear/outflow balance, highest probs on occurrence Monday
night.
The high pwat airmass, and the potential for convective
outflows to slow or back build, also brings excessive rainfall
and flooding into the mix with any MCS, especially in nw IN and
sw MI given recent heavy rainfall from Beryl's remnants. There
has been a consistent signal in model guidance for excessive
rainfall Monday night.
Monday still appears to be the best opportunity for near advisory
peak PM heat indices (100F). A more comfortable continental airmass
will provide relief from the active wx and humidity mid week through
next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Mainly VFR/dry through the period. Remnant MCS clears early this
morning with MLCIN bubble likely to limit the southeastward
progress of a southern WI convection cluster into northern IN
through much of the day. Low level southwest flow does increase
and advect moisture/instability back in later today into
tonight. This may allow another outflow dominant convective
system to drop southeast through the terminals with brief gusty
winds and restrictions at some point, best chances mid evening
into the overnight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 14, 6:12 AM EDT---------------
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