MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 6:13 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...666
FXUS64 KMOB 181113
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
613 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
- A MODERATE Risk of rip currents and elevated surf heights of
2-3 feet continues through this afternoon.
- Rain chances increase over the weekend into the beginning of
next week.
- Above normal temperatures push heat indices into the 100-106
degree range Saturday through at least Monday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
The forecast for today is on track with no changes planned at the
moment. /29
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026
The center of a strong upper high continues over the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley. This will continue to slowly retrograde west towards
the southern Great Plains and begin to weaken through the weekend.
Meanwhile, a weak upper low is currently off the east coast of
Florida. Our area is currently between these two upper features with
enhanced northeasterly flow funneling in drier air. The center of
the upper low is beginning to move west and will strengthen through
the the weekend. There is some uncertainty in how quick and just how
far west the upper low will get.
PWATs have dropped well below normal with the current values of ~1.0
inch. PWATs will start to increase through Friday and increase above
1.6 inches and return closer to normal through Saturday. With such
low moisture, no precipitation is expected through Friday before
moisture returns to the area. By Saturday afternoon the upper low
moves further west into the Gulf which helps to increases the PWATs
with Atlantic moisture thanks to easterly flow. Depending on how
quick/close the upper low can fully retrograde closer to the area
bringing the moisture with it, this begins daily precipitation
chances through beginning to mid next week. This pattern brings
isolated to scattered storms over the marine areas in the morning
and moves inland for the afternoon with the highest coverage closer
to the coast. There has been some trends in guidance that have the
upper low and best moisture stalling some further to the east before
weakening by around Tuesday. That would put the higher rain chances
into southeastern Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle,
especially Saturday and potentially Sunday.
The area will continue to have above normal temperatures through mid
next week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and low 90s
along the immediate coast for Friday through at least the beginning
of next week. Dry air being funneled in will keep the area mixed and
afternoon dewpoints in the 60s through the Saturday and maybe
Sunday, especially for inland areas. Dewpoints will then increase
some into the low 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast. Heat
indices stay below advisory criteria even with the temperatures
being well above normal. Good overnight relief comes tonight as low
temperatures are at normal in the upper 60s inland to the low 70s
along the immediate coast before increasing again by Saturday night
into the low 70s through the rest of the forecast period.
...BEACH FORECAST...
For the beaches in southern Alabama and the northwest Florida
Panhandle, the rip current risk drops to a MODERATE through Friday
afternoon and surf heights will be 2-3 feet dropping through the
day. For the weekend through mid next week, surf heights remain
generally 1 to 2 feet outside of any storms.
SS/97
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
VFR conditions are expected through tonight. An east to northeast
flow at 5-10 knot develops this morning, then switches to the
southeast near the coast late this afternoon. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
A diurnal flow prevails through early next week with winds trending
to a light to occasionally moderate onshore flow each afternoon then
offshore at night. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 92 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 91 74 93 76 / 0 0 10 10
Destin 90 76 90 77 / 0 0 10 10
Evergreen 95 69 96 70 / 0 0 30 20
Waynesboro 95 70 97 70 / 0 0 0 10
Camden 96 71 97 70 / 0 0 30 20
Crestview 93 70 94 71 / 0 0 30 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 18, 6:13 AM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION...---------------
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