IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 19, 12:25 AM EDT497
FXUS63 KIWX 190425
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Several rounds of rain and embedded thunderstorms expected
this weekend, possibly lingering into Monday. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect for portions of the forecast area through
Sunday morning.
- There is a marginal risk for isolated strong to severe storms
along and south of the US 30 corridor later this afternoon
into tonight. The main threat in severe storms would be
damaging winds. Confidence is low.
- Cooler and trending drier Tuesday through Friday. Highs in the
60s, low 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
The active weather pattern continues, with additional heavy rainfall
potential tonight into Sunday morning, possibly lingering into
Monday. WPC has portions of our area in a moderate risk for
excessive rainfall, with the remaining portions of our area in
slight/marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Opted to issue a
flash flood watch for portions of IN/MI and a small part of NW
OH (Van Wert/Paulding Counties, OH). We still remain on the
northern periphery of an upper level ridge/trough to the north,
which keeps us in zonal flow with various shortwaves moving
through. The first arrives late tonight into Saturday, and the
second Saturday night into Sunday morning. The second is
associated with a surface low that drifts from IL into our
forecast area and over to NW OH (or the lower Great Lakes
depending on the model). There is considerable uncertainty with
regards to exact timing, so went broad brush with pops
(likely/categorical). There is also uncertainty as to where
exactly the heaviest rain will fall, but for now it looks like
areas along and north of US 6 will see 2-3 inches of additional
rainfall, while further south around 1-2". Locally higher
amounts are possible where training of storms could occur, and
it's possible the higher totals shift further south. Given
ongoing impacts with river flooding and water over roads (in the
areas that received 6-10" of rain this week just south of Fort
Wayne/Allen Co, IN)...decided to err on the side of caution and
issue the watch. Areas further north saw around 1-3" (local max
of around 4" near our office), but despite these lower amounts
this may have primed the pump for flooding if we get the higher
amounts as forecast.
Otherwise, highs will be in the 70s, low 80s through Sunday. There
is a marginal risk for isolated strong-severe storms Saturday,
mainly for downburst wind potential (5%) during the day in any
embedded convection. Low confidence.
Additional rain chances with periods of thunder through the week,
becoming drier towards the Wed-Friday time frame. Cooler, with highs
dropping into the 60s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026
VFR conditions and east-southeast winds near 10 knots early
this morning will give way to a period of showers and embedded
storms later this morning into early this afternoon, best
chances for more significant vis restrictions in heavier
showers/storms 13-16z at KSBN and 15-18z at KFWA. A lull in
coverage of showers/storms is anticipated behind this initial
round this afternoon into early this evening with cigs in the
MVFR to low VFR category.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for INZ005>009-012-014-015-
017-018-023>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OHZ015-024.
MI...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MIZ078>080-177-277.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 19, 12:25 AM EDT---------------
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