MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 12:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...056
FXUS64 KMOB 151748
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1248 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
- Heat index values of 100-107 are expected today.
- A High Risk of rip currents is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday. A High Surf Advisory may also become necessary as
surf heights near 5 feet.
- Moderate to strong easterly winds may create hazardous
conditions for small craft over the open Gulf from late tonight through
Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
An upper ridge over the region retreats from the area late this
week and into Saturday as an upper low/trof forms over the far
western Atlantic and advances into the northeast Gulf. A surface
ridge builds into the southeastern states through midweek, setting
up an easterly surface flow which ushers drier air into the
forecast area. Isolated showers and storms will be possible over
the coastal counties Tuesday afternoon with the seabreeze, but
otherwise subsidence associated with the upper ridge will suppress
convective development. The easterly surface flow with the
building surface ridge strengthens mainly over the marine area
Tuesday night into Wednesday, and isolated to scattered convection
develops in response over the marine area which may affect mainly
coastal portions of Alabama. Dry conditions otherwise prevail
through Friday, then slight chance to chance pops return to the
forecast on Saturday as the upper low progresses into the
northeastern Gulf along with a modest surface reflection trof and
improving deep layer moisture. Chance to likely pops follow for
Sunday as the upper low looks to slowly progress a bit further
across the Gulf along with deep layer moisture continuing to
increase.
A low risk of rip currents on Tuesday is expected to quickly
increase to a High Risk for Wednesday and Thursday, then a
moderate risk follows for Friday. As noted by the previous shift,
will need to monitor surf heights which are expected to increase
to 4-5 feet on Wednesday and Thursday. Should these increase
further, then a High Surf Advisory would likely become necessary
for these days. Heat index values of 100-107 are expected for
Tuesday, but otherwise a combination of somewhat cooler daytime
highs and/or lower surface dewpoints will limit heat index
values. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the evening hours. Some lower ceilings may
start to develop and push across the immediate coastline during
the overnight hours, potentially bringing MVFR ceilings and a few
showers or storms. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should remain
prevalent. Light easterly to southeasterly winds this afternoon
will become more variable this evening. By tonight and into
Wednesday morning, northeasterly winds are expected to increase as
a boundary pushes through the area. Winds may gust to around 20
knots by the mid to late morning hours, especially along the
coast. /96
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026
Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly flow becomes
established today, becoming strong Wednesday into Thursday. Winds
relax to light to occasionally moderate easterlies to end the week.
1 foot seas today increase quickly Wednesday to 4 to 7 feet. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the marine waters late Tuesday
night through Thursday afternoon. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 75 91 71 90 / 10 10 0 0
Pensacola 77 91 73 89 / 10 0 0 0
Destin 77 91 73 89 / 10 0 0 0
Evergreen 73 91 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 73 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
Camden 74 93 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
Crestview 74 90 68 89 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Wednesday to 4 PM CDT Thursday
for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 15, 12:48 PM CDT ...New AVIATION...---------------
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