IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 2:07 AM EDT375
FXUS63 KIWX 160607
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
207 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Humid with rounds of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday, best chances this morning, and then again later
tonight into Thursday morning (50-80%).
- Locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible today into Thursday.
- Dry and less humid conditions on Friday followed by renewed
opportunties for rain and storms this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026
A frontal boundary and ~2 inch PWAT axis will hover in west to
east fashion over the area through at least Thursday with
periodic shower/storm chances. Locally heavy rainfall/flash
flooding will be the primary concern given the high moisture
content and potential for several rounds of slow moving
convection.
Favorable right entrance region upper support, in conjunction
with an incoming convectively augmented mid level impulse
(potential MCV), should keep at least scattered convection in
the vicinity of the theta-e ridge this morning, especially
across northern IN and northwest OH. Rainfall rates have been
impressive (over an inch in 10-15 minutes), so will continue to
monitor flooding going forward.
Weak height rises on the northern fringes of a stout upper level
ridge suggest some overall subsidence this afternoon into this
evening. Held with lower PoPs as a result during this time, but
still cannot rule out widely scattered convection within any pockets
of greater heating, mainly near the US 24 corridor. Later tonight
into Thursday morning then features increasing chances for
another round of storms and potential hydro issues as renewed
warm advection ensues within another low level jet.
The bulk of available model guidance does push the effective frontal
zone off to south-southwest by Thursday night into Friday with brief
dry and less humid conditions. Rain/storm chances then return
this weekend as piecemeal shortwave energy ejects east out of
the Intermountain West, forcing the boundary and instability
axis back north into the lower Great Lakes.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Continued moisture transport into a frontal zone will likely
allow for an additional round of showers and storms (and brief
vis restrictions) this morning, best chances later tonight
through the late morning hours as an upstream MCV tracks in. Low
VFR to MVFR conditions expected to build in just north of the
sfc portion of the front otherwise today with confidence on any
additional thunderstorm activity low (20-30%) by this afternoon-
evening.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 16, 2:07 AM EDT---------------
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