CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 2:35 PM EDT793
FXUS61 KCLE 141835
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
235 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes
were needed with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool temperatures and dry weather expected tonight.
2) An unsettled and humid weather pattern returns Tuesday
through late week. A few strong storms are possible in Northwest
Ohio Tuesday night, although confidence is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will remain in place over the region through
tonight. Clear skies will allow for efficient radiational
cooling and expect lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A few
spots across interior NE PA may manage to drip into the low to
mid 40s if cooling ends up being more efficient than currently
anticipated. This will be the last chilly night of the workweek
before temperatures warm up Tuesday onwards.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a brief break in the unsettled weather pattern, multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact the area
late Tuesday through at least Thursday. The first round of
showers and thunderstorms will arrive behind a warm front and
with a pre-frontal trough Tuesday evening. There is a small
chance of a couple of stronger storms Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night, although most CAMs suggest that the best
instability will be to the west of the local area and storms
will be coming in during a diurnally unfavorable time of day.
The severe weather risk may be a little bit higher if storms end
up moving in earlier than currently anticipated, but either way
bulk shear values of around 30 knots supports an SPC Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather with damaging wind gusts
being the main concern.
From there, a cold front will push southeast across at least a
portion of the area before slowing and wavering over the region
Wednesday through late Thursday. This will result in periodic
showers and thunderstorms for the mid to late week timeframe.
There may be opportunities for a few stronger storms given the
proximity of the front, but there is still uncertainty in the
exact placement of the boundary and the amount of instability in
place each afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on the forecast
and update as needed.
It will also be quite humid and warm across the area with highs
in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s
Wednesday and Thursday. PWAT values will increase to 1.5 to at
least 2 inches during this time and flow parallel to the
boundary may result in potential in heavy rainfall rates and
training showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure continues to provide for cooler, drier, and VFR
conditions through the TAF period. FEW-SCT cumulus around 4000
feet across parts of NE OH/NW PA will continue to clear out
through this evening. High clouds will filter through at times.
Fog is generally not expected tonight due to a light breeze.
Speaking of, north-northeast winds at under 10kt this afternoon
will remain light while shifting south-southeast tonight. Winds
increase to around 10kt out of the south-southwest on Tuesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR at times in scattered showers/storms Tuesday
night through Thursday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will continue through early this
evening before shifting to the southeast and increasing to 10 to
20 knots ahead of an approaching warm front tonight into Tuesday
morning. There may a brief period where winds in the nearshore
zones (especially in the western basin) touch 20 knots Tuesday
morning, however confidence in winds of 20+ knots is highest in
the open waters. Have opted against a Small Craft Advisory for
the time being, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds.
The offshore winds will mitigate wave heights and keep the risk
of rip currents relatively low. Offshore winds will diminish to
roughly 10 to 15 knots Tuesday evening with flow becoming more
southwesterly behind the warm front Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Northeast winds of 10 knots or less are expected on
the lake as a frontal boundary wavers over the region Wednesday
with flow becoming variable Thursday through the end of the
week. Winds/waves should remain below Small Craft Advisory
limits late this week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 2:35 PM EDT---------------
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