MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:31 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...168
FXUS64 KMOB 121831
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
131 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
- High rain chances continue through Sunday with the potential
for localized flash flooding. A few strong storms capable of
producing strong wind gusts will be possible through the
weekend.
- Waterspouts are possible with any storms over the marine waters
this morning, primarily from dawn through mid-morning.
- High temperatures are expected to increase next week with heat
indices potentially ranging from 100-107 degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Through Tuesday...A mean upper trough over the Southeast and
Tennessee River Valley moves off as upper level high pressure moves
over the regions early in the coming week. A drier airmass moves
over the Southeast behind the shifting upper trough, with the axis
of higher moisture levels shifting south and east of the forecast
area in response. Rain chances become more coastally based Sunday,
and offshore Monday. Any convection has a possibility of strong to
marginally severe storms this weekend, with MLCapes in the 2000-
2500J/kg and DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg ranges.
With the advancing upper subsidence, temperatures rise to well above
seasonal norms into the coming week. Mid to upper 90s return for
Monday and Tuesday. The shifting moisture levels will help to temper
Heat Indices going to the coming week, though. Even so, 100-107F,
locally higher, values are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are
expected through the short term.
Tuesday night on, a surface ridge develops along the eastern side of
the Appalachians, in response to the shifting upper ridge. Guidance
continues to advertise a closed upper low moving west over the
northern Gulf coast. The surface ridge moves a significantly drier
airmass southwest over the Southeast as the upper low begins to move
onshore over the region, limiting rain chances the rest of the week
over land areas. PoPs remain over the Gulf, with moisture levels
remaining high over the Gulf. This upper low does bring increased
cloud cover, dropping temperatures to closer, but a still a bit
above, seasonal norms.
Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected through the weekend into the coming week. A more
organized, moderate to strong easterly flow will bring an increased
swell to area beaches, along with a Moderate to High Rip Risk to
area beaches by mid week.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast outside of
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly along
and east of I-65. MVFR ceilings, brief IFR visibilities, and gusty
winds to 35 knots are expected in the stronger storms. Winds for
all TAF sites will start off southwesterly to southerly at 5-10
knots becoming calm to light and variable this evening.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
An upper high moving over the Tennessee River
Valley/Southeast, with shift a surface high over the northern Gulf,
bringing a more variable flow to area waters early in the coming
week. A surface ridge develops on the east side of the Appalachians
through the coming week, bringing a moderate easterly flow to area
waters, with moderate to strong flow over open Gulf waters. A Small
Craft Advisory is expected mid week on.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 92 74 94 / 0 30 10 10
Pensacola 77 91 77 93 / 10 30 10 10
Destin 77 89 77 92 / 20 20 10 10
Evergreen 70 94 71 96 / 10 20 0 0
Waynesboro 72 95 72 97 / 20 30 0 0
Camden 72 93 72 96 / 20 10 0 0
Crestview 72 92 72 94 / 10 30 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:31 PM CDT ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...---------------
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