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685 FXUS64 KMOB 082102AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday)Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024Isolated to scattered showers and storms have developed across the area this afternoon, but should begin to taper off early this evening with the loss of daytime heating. It's also been very hot and humid this afternoon with temperatures currently sitting in the lower and middle 90s. Heat index values have risen into the 105-110 degree range. A Heat Advisory will therefore remain in effect until 6pm this evening for the entire area. Low temperatures tonight will range from the middle and upper 70s inland to around 80 degrees near the coast. Upper level ridging over southern GA and northern FL will weaken through Tuesday as Tropical Storm Beryl lifts northeastward acrosseastern Texas and Arkansas while simultaneously merging with a northern steam trough over the central US. This system will remainoff to our northwest, but it will send a plume of deep tropical moisture down into our area overnight and into Tuesday. Showers and storms will likely begin to develop along southern portions ofthe area early Tuesday morning before spreading across the remainder of the area through the day. Given the weakening upper ridge and increasing moisture, coverage will become more widespread especially as we head into the afternoon hours. Storms on Tuesday will be capable of producing heavy rainfall (perhaps a quick 2-3+ inches) and could lead to some localized flooding concerns especially in areas where storms repeatedly move over thesame areas and are slow moving. Brief gusty winds and frequent lightning will also be possible with the stronger activity. Temperatures will top out in the lower 90s Tuesday afternoon as cloud cover and rain chances increase. It will still feel quite humid though with heat index values reaching to around 105-107 degrees. A moderate rip current risk continues tonight before increasing back to a high risk on Tuesday. /14&&.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024The remnants of Beryl will continue to lift northeastward across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley regions Tuesday night into Wednesday. A weak surface front moving into our forecast area willstall near the I-65 corridor Wednesday afternoon before becoming more of a surface trough axis across our region by Thursday. A plume of enhanced deep layer moisture across our area with PWAT values between 2.0 and 2.4 inches will shift southeastward to become oriented across central and southern portions of our forecast as drier air filters in from the northwest, so we expecta chance of showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) over most of theCWA on Wednesday, with lower POPs (20%) across our northwestern zones. An upper trough associated with the remnants of Beryl isexpected to persist over the eastern half of the US throughThursday, followed by weak upper ridging building over the DeepSouth late in the week. As a result, convective coverage shouldremain isolated to scattered in nature on Thursday and Friday, and mainly oriented along the surface trough axis/seabreeze near the coast. Precipitable water values may trend upward by the weekend despite the building ridge axis, so scattered convection looks to be a good bet with good heating and instability over the weekend into Monday. Hot and humid conditions will be the rule each day through the extended forecast with high temperatures ranging in the lower to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday and potentially trending a bit higher in the mid to upper 90s away from the immediate coast Friday through the weekend. Heat index values look to stay below advisory criteria for the most part during the middle to latter part of the week. The latest forecast does have maximum heat index readings ranging between 102-107 degrees and locally over 108 degrees over a few spots over the weekend into Monday. /22&&.MARINE...Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024Southeasterly flow prevails today before becoming a moderatesouthwesterly to westerly flow Tuesday through mid-week. Small craft will likely need to exercise caution Tuesday night. Light westerly to southwesterly flow returns for the later part of the week. /14&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 78 90 75 91 74 93 74 94 / 30 80 50 40 20 30 10 40 Pensacola 80 91 79 90 77 91 77 93 / 30 80 60 60 30 40 20 40 Destin 81 91 80 89 78 91 79 92 / 30 70 50 70 40 40 20 40 Evergreen 75 93 74 91 70 92 69 95 / 20 80 20 40 10 20 10 20 Waynesboro 75 93 71 92 70 94 71 96 / 20 80 10 20 10 10 0 20 Camden 75 92 72 90 69 92 69 94 / 20 80 20 30 10 10 0 20 Crestview 76 93 75 91 72 94 72 96 / 20 80 40 60 20 40 10 40 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for ALZ265-266.FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for FLZ202-204-206.MS...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
