JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 5:58 PM EDT685
FXUS63 KJKL 112158
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
558 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hotter conditions make a comeback as we move into the weekend
and for next week.
- The next significant chance of rain will hold off until the
middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 558 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024
The surface analysis shows high pressure continues to work into
the Great Lakes this afternoon. In the mid-levels, a shortwave
trough is pushing across portions of the Ohio Valley. This is
aiding in sparking off a few showers and thunderstorms to the
northwest of eastern Kentucky. Most of the CAMs have this activity
decreasing through the evening, but the HRRR has shown some signs
this could maintain and get closer to the area late this evening.
Right now leaning toward dry weather through the evening, but did
opt to increase cloud cover given the latest trends on Satellite.
Outside this overall minor updates were made to the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 320 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024
Current surface analysis has surface high pressure situated over the
much of the eastern CONUS. The remnants of Beryl is exiting off the
northeastern coast and a weak surface low is tracking across the
Central Plains with a wavering frontal boundary extending into the
Ohio Valley. Locally, high pressure is keeping the CWA warm and dry
with a widespread field of fair weather cumulus clouds.
Aloft, troughing is situated over the Great Lakes with the CWA under
the regime of the upslope side of the trough. Through the afternoon
into Friday, the trough will pivot through the area. At the surface,
high pressure will remain in place but a few showers and storms may
try to develop this afternoon along the aforementioned frontal
boundary but those PoP chances will largely remain confined to areas
west of the CWA. Clouds will decrease overnight and a decent ridge-
valley split will set up tonight; as well as, areas of patchy dense
valley fog.
Friday brings much of the same weather as surface high pressure
remains in place. The upper-level trough will pivot through the area
but once again, not expecting much in the way of PoPs. CAMs try to
bring a few isolated showers or storms to the I-75 corridor but
chances are less than 15% in those areas. Similar to Thursday night,
a mostly clear night is expected again Friday into Saturday where a
ridge-valley split sets up and valley fog will develop and persist
through early Saturday morning.
Overall, the period will be dry with passing clouds. Highs are
forecast to be in the mid to upper-80s today before climbing into
low 90s for Friday. Overnight lows will remain mild across the area
too, as lows tonight will drop into the low to mid-60s and mid to
upper-60s for Friday night.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024
The first several days in the extended should be hot and mostly dry,
as high pressure settles over portions of the southeastern and
southern CONUS. We might see a few showers and storms Sunday
afternoon north of Highway 80, and again Monday evening, as a couple
of weak disturbances pass by to our north. Our next good chance will
likely not arrive until late Tuesday, as a more substantial system
moves across southern Canada, and drags a cold front through the
Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. It appears that the
front will get hung near or over our area by Wednesday, keeping rain
chances in the forecast through near the end of the week. Weak
impulses moving along the sluggish boundary will be triggers for
showers and storms as well.
As for temperatures, it looks like we will see a return to hot and
muggy conditions in the extended. The latest run of the NBM was way
too hot for Monday and Tuesday, and initially had highs on those two
days maxing out in the mid to upper 90s, which would be incredibly
difficult to achieve in our area. Even with dewpoints expected to
rise into the upper and lower 70s, we should still see daily highs
mainly in the lower 90s, with a few locations perhaps reaching the
mid 90s. We should see a nice cool down at the end of the period, as
the cold front drifts to our south and persistent rain and clouds
are in place. Highs next Thursday should only be in the low to mid
80s. As far as weather concerns go, we will keep an eye on just hot
and humid conditions become the first few days next week. If any
concerns arise with regards to the heat, we will keep everyone
informed.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2024
High pressure will keep TAFs mostly VFR through the period.
However, mid-level moisture is favoring a deck of mid-level
clouds to develop across the area. This mid-level deck will
persist into the late evening before dissipating. Overnight,
mostly clear skies will allow for fog to develop in the fog prone
areas, mainly KLOZ and KSME bringing those terminals to MVFR
between 06Z and 12Z. Fog will burn off after 12/Friday. Winds
will remain light and variable through the duration of the TAF
period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 11, 5:58 PM EDT---------------
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