Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1256 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE767
AWUS01 KWNH 120408
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121007-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1256
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1207 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of the Lower Ohio Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 120407Z - 121007Z
Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are attempting to broaden in
scale and align in and near southwest IN. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.
Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been forward
propagating across western KY into southernmost IL. However, new
activity has developed in advance of the system within an ML CAPE
gradient across southwest IN. Precipitable water values of
1.9-2.3" lurk across the region. CIN remains quite low due to the
upper level low moving just south of the eastern MO/AR border. ML
CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts.
While the 00z HREF/REFS guidance continues to show solely forward
propagation convection, the recent addition of new cells in
advance of the activity has changed perceptions. Where cells
manage to merge and/or train, hourly rain amounts have the
potential of ramping up to 2.5", with local totals to 4" being
possible. Given the modest three hourly flash flood guidance
values, flash flooding is possible on an isolated to widely
scattered basis.
Roth
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39878601 38978443 37508516 37308806 36668919
36708967 38828846
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #1256 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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