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825 FXUS64 KLIX 100602AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA102 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026- Another surge of tropical moisture will elevate the risk for locally heavy rainfall leading to street flooding and overflowing of poor drainage areas Thursday through Sunday. &&.SHORT TERM...(Now through Sunday)Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026A more unsettled weather pattern will take hold of the regiontoday and continue through the weekend. This pattern will bedriven by the development a broad, but fairly weak, mid to upperlevel trough axis across the Lower Mississippi Valley and GulfSouth today and into tomorrow. The trough will linger over thearea through the weekend before shifting out of the area earlynext week. Weak forcing aloft will combine with ample moisture asnoted by PWATS ranging from the 90th percentile to the daily max for this time of year, or well over 2 inches, and sufficient instability to produce multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Given the warm airmass aloft and deep tropical moisture in place, efficient rainfall processes will support higher rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour with any stronger storms that form. Storm motions will average 5 knots today, and this will lead to increased flooding risk, especially in low lying and poorly drained areas. Thus, a level 1 out of 5, or marginal risk, of flooding rainfall is in place for today across most of the region. On Friday and Saturday, storm motion will increase slightly to around 10 knots, but localized flooding will still be a concern if any training of storms over the same region occurs. Although PWATS will begin to decline slightly on Sunday, storm motion will also drop back to around 5 knots and localized flooding will remain a risk. Model soundings are not supportive of any severe storms developing due to a lack of sufficient shear and the warm air aloft limiting hail development.Temperatures will also be near or even slightly below average through the weekend with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and heat index values peaking out near 105. &&.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Wednesday)Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026By Monday, upper level high pressure has moved into the area from the east and taken a firm hold over the southern US. This will bring us back to the summer pattern of afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s and 30-50% PoPs in the afternoons. These highs temps are about 5 degrees above normal for the end of summer and combined with the humidity will put heat index values in the 105-110 range, so at this point in time I have to mention the possibility of heat headlines. The good news about the rain is it helps put a bit of a damper on the temperature rise&&.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026The pattern will be quite stormy with multiple rounds of showersand thunderstorms impacting the terminals. Coastal terminals likeGPT, HUM, MSY, and NEW will be the most impacted by these repeatedrounds of showers and storms and PROB30 or TEMPO wording is inplace from 10-12z to 00-02z, or the majority of the forecastperiod to reflect this risk. Further inland, at MCB, ASD, HDC, andBTR, the thunderstorm activity will be a bit delayed and will runfrom 14-16z through 00z. It is difficult to time out the exactperiod that storms will impact the terminals as there is no largescale system to hone in on for development, thus the extended window of convective impacts using PROB30 wording. MVFR and IFR visibility restrictions of 2 to 5 miles, gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph, and lightning strikes can be expected as these storms move through. &&.MARINE...Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026A weak area of low pressure will move through the waters today with light and variable winds of less than 10 knots expected. As the low shifts to the west tomorrow, winds will turn more south-southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots. These conditions will persist into Saturday. High pressure centered over the eastern Gulf and southeastern United States will become more dominant as we move into next week, and this will cause winds to turn more south-southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots from Sunday onward. Seas will generally remain in the 1 to 3 feet range with the highest seas well offshore. Additionally, thunderstorm activity will develop each day, peaking in the early to mid-morning hours, and these storms will produce higher wind gusts, waterspouts, and lightningconcerns.&&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...PGLONG TERM....DSAVIATION...PGMARINE...PG
