BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 7:36 AM EDT160
FXUS61 KBOX 081136
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
736 AM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Gale watches hoisted for later Wednesday night into Thursday morning
for Buzzards Bay, Cape Cod Bay, and Nantucket Sound.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly Dry/pleasant today and Wed. Highs in the upper 70s to
the lower 80s both days...albeit a bit more humid Wed.
- Breezy, warm and humid Wed night into Thu with brief scattered
showers possible...but the vast majority of this time will be dry.
- Mainly dry/pleasant with lower humidity Fri into Sat with highs
mainly in the 70s. Turning a bit more humid/warmer Sun into Mon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly Dry/pleasant today and Wed. Highs in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s both days...albeit a bit more humid
Wed.
A ridge of high pressure in place will result in a beautiful day
of weather today. A moisture starved northern stream coupled
with diurnal heating will result in scattered clouds today, but
still expect plenty of sunshine too. While we can not rule out
the risk for a brief spot sprinkle/light shower in the
afternoon, areal coverage and duration would be so limited it is
not worth including in the forecast. High temps will mainly be
in the upper 70s to the lower 80s with comfortable humidity
levels too. Low temps tonight should drop into the middle 50s to
the lower 60s with light/calm winds along with just some
scattered to broken mid level cloudiness.
High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic coast by Wed. Highs
will again be in the upper 70s to the lower 80s, but it will be
a bit more humid as high pressure moving off the Mid Atlantic
coast brings increasing low level moisture. We also do expect a
bit of a southwest breeze to develop by mid to late afternoon.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Breezy, warm, and humid Wed night into Thu with
brief scattered showers possible...but the vast majority of
this time will be dry.
A cold front will approach the region Wed night into early Thu.
Out ahead of this front a modest southwest LLJ of 45-50+ knots
at 950 mb. This should be enough to result in breezy southwest
wind gusts of 20-30 mph with a few gusts of 35-40 mph possible
in the vicinity of the upper Cape where they are favored based
on soundings and pattern recognition.
As for precipitation chances, precipitable water values will
approach 2 inches ahead of the cold front. However, the low
level moisture is fairly shallow and only deepens in a narrow
band along the cold front and the better dynamics/forcing is
across northern New England. Therefore...only expect a brief
round of scattered showers with the cold front and the majority
of Wed night into Thu will feature dry weather. It will be a
humid though and the gusty southwest winds will hold low temps
into the 65-70 degree range Wed night. Highs on Thu will be warm
for this time of year, mainly in the middle 80s but a few spots
may reach the upper 80s and it will be humid.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry/pleasant with lower humidity Fri into
Sat with highs mainly in the 70s. Turning a bit more
humid/warmer Sun into Mon.
Post frontal airmass will result in beautiful weather Fri into
Sat with lower humidity. Plenty of sunshine expected both days
with highs mainly in the 70s along with comfortable humidity.
High pressure overhead will allow for many locations to fall
into the 40s to the lower 50s Fri night/Sat am...which may end
up being the coolest night for many locations since late last
spring.
This high pressure system will shift east of the region by Sun
and Mon. This will allow for a return southwest flow of a bit
more humid/warmer airmass to work back into the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today...High confidence.
VFR, despite an increase in some mid level cloudiness. NW winds
5-10 knots, except sea breezes developing along portions of the
immediate coast this afternoon.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. Calm/light E winds.
Wednesday...High confidence.
VFR. SW wind gusts of 15-25 knots developing during the afternoon.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt.
Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Breezy.
Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today through Wednesday...High confidence.
High pressure in control will keep winds/seas well below Small
Craft Advisory criteria today and tonight. This high moves off
the Mid Atlantic coast Wed, which will allow for increasing SW
winds. We expect SW wind gusts of 20-25 knots to develop by mid
to late Wed afternoon. We should see widespread SW wind gusts of
25 to 35 knots Wed night into Thu morning with a fairly strong
LLJ down to 950 mb. For now will have hoisted Gale Watches for
Buzzards and Cape Cod Bays as well as Nantucket sound...which
tend to blow the hardest in these setups. Later shifts may need
to expand these Gale Watches. At the very least, we will need
Small Craft Advisories for all waters over this time.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain
showers.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for
ANZ231>234.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Frank
AVIATION...Belk/Frank
MARINE...Frank
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 8, 7:36 AM EDT----------------
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