JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 10:52 PM EDT993
FXUS63 KJKL 110252
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1052 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather will last through
Thursday.
- Hotter conditions will make a comeback as we move into the
weekend, and then last into next week.
- The next significant chance of rain is not until the middle of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
We are seeing a little fog start to show up in a few of the valley
obs and therefore updated to add fog in just a bit earlier than we
had. Outside this it is a very minor update.
UPDATE Issued at 643 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
Any of the sprinkles and perhaps a light shower from early have
mostly dissipated this late afternoon hour. We are left with a
mix of sun and clouds, with HREF showing these clouds diminishing
in coverage through evening. This will leave us with mostly clear
to eventually clear skies through the night. There remains some
question on fog coverage tonight, but given the moisture in place
from recent rainfall and diurnally limited day there is a good
chance for at least river valley fog. Outside of this it will be a
quiet night and no big changes needed this update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
The last clouds and some sprinkles associated with the
extratropical remnants of what was once tropical system Beryl are
dissipating over the area late today. This will leave us with
mainly clear skies tonight as surface high pressure builds in from
the southwest. The high will drift to the northeast and remain
our dominating surface feature through the short term period.
Aloft, a positively tilted trough from the mid Mississippi Valley
northeast over the Great Lakes will move very little, but will
weaken during the short term period. That being the case, its
influence to generate convective precip will remain to our north
and west, and we will remain dry tonight through Thursday night.
With fairly high relative humidity to start tonight, skies
clearing, and winds diminishing, valley fog is expected overnight.
Will look for it again on Thursday night, but to a lesser extent
as there will be more warming from abundant sunshine during the
preceding day on Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
The large scale flow pattern in the extended will begin with surface
ridging in place over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, the upper
Mississippi Valley. A broad and fairly flat ridge aloft is forecast
to be situated over the Gulf of Mexico to start the period. The
subtropical ridge is progged to be in place over the eastern Atlantic
off the east coast of the CONUS. Southwesterly flow off of this
ridge will lead to persistent shower and storm activity up and down
the east coast, as the tropical moisture interacts with a stalled
out frontal boundary that will be in place just inland from the
eastern seaboard. Further west, general but weak troughiness is
going to be in place over the western third of the CONUS. This
troughy pattern will be displaced to the east Friday and Saturday,
however, as strengthening ridging aloft moves onshore from the
Pacific Ocean. This will lead to dry and hot weather across the
desert southwest and areas further east, as the ridge marches
eastward.
The persistent ridging will lead to hot and dry weather across our
area for most of the extended, with uncomfortable heat expected into
the middle of next week. A few weak systems passing by to our north
and south may allow a few showers and storms to affect portions of
the area Monday and Tuesday. However, we should not see another good
chance of rain until Tuesday night and Wednesday, as a fairly potent
area of low pressure moves through the region to our north. The
frontal boundary associated with this system will have plenty of
moisture to work with on its eastward trek, as the subtropical ridge
moves a bit closer the southeastern CONUS, and pumps ample warm
moist air off the Gulf northward into the Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys. Daily high temperatures will max out in the lower 90s, with
nightly lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected for most
locations.
There are no major concerns in the extended portion of the forecast
at this time, but we will continue to monitor the extent of the hot
temperatures next week. At this time, it appears that heat index
values will max out in the 90s across the area, with a some
locations perhaps reaching the upper 90s at time Monday through
Wednesday. An isolated location or two may even reach 100 Tuesday or
Wednesday, but nothing widespread is on tap at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 606 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2024
We are seeing a mix of clearing skies and broken cloud cover this
evening at around 4-7 kft in most cases. The short term guidance
is still showing this lower cloud cover will diminish in coverage
through the night. These clearing skies coupled with ample low
level moisture will lead to fog potential in the valleys overnight
into Thursday morning. The coverage of this fog is still somewhat
in question with the national blend of models showing only around
a 30-40 percent chance of visibilities below 5 miles. However,
given the added moisture from the recent rainfall and diurnally
limited day seen today would suspect at least some fog to develop
in river valley locations tonight under clearing skies and calm
winds. Given some of the guidance will add in MVFR to IFR fog at
the TAF sites later tonight, with lowest vis sites being SME and
SYM. This fog will disperse as we mix out toward the 13 to 14Z
timeframe. This will leave us with VFR CIGs and Vis for the
remainder of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 10:52 PM EDT---------------
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