ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 2:53 PM EDT996
FXUS61 KILN 101853
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
253 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will migrate away from the
region tonight, with seasonably mild conditions returning to the
area. Although there will be a chance for a stray shower or
storm Thursday into the weekend, most spots may stay dry. Warmer
and more humid air will return to the region toward early next
week, but that will coincide with greater chances for more
widespread storm chances again.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
The remnants of Beryl have transitioned to a ~1003mb
extratropical low that is progressing to the E through the nrn
OH Vly and beginning to pull away from the local area. Within
this broad/strong cyclonic flow, shallow yet sufficient moisture
has led to patches of light SHRA/sprinkles/drizzle that
continue to pivot around the low center, providing on-and-off
very light RA to many spots near/N of the OH Rvr thus far today.
This activity will begin to shift off to the E, with a few
lingering SHRA back on the wrn fringes of the cloud shield
(stretching from EC IN through the Tri-State into N KY) where
some sunshine is aiding in just enough instby to allow for
additional ISO SHRA to develop. A few very light SHRA and
sprinkles may continue in these areas into early evening.
The main story for today has been the unseasonably breezy/gusty
conditions, owing to a relatively tight pressure gradient
positioned across the area. SW winds of 20-25 MPH, with gusts
35-40 MPH, should begin to taper off late afternoon into early
afternoon, with winds quickly subsiding after sunset.
Extensive cloud cover remains draped across the area, although
there are a few breaks within the stratocu deck beginning to
emerge in the SW third of the ILN FA. These breaks should
continue to expand and creep to the E into early evening,
allowing for cloudy skies to trend partly sunny for most of the
area by sunset. Temps will dip from the lower/mid 70s this
afternoon to the lower/mid 60s by daybreak Thursday. There may
be some patchy FG, especially in area river valleys and in
locales where it is able to clear completely late tonight.
However, did not yet have confidence to add to the fcst.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Although sfc high pressure will attempt to build into the region
tonight into early Thursday, it will be edged out by the
approach of a weak S/W pivoting to the ESE into the OH Vly by
daybreak Thursday. This feature, while quite weak, will provide
enough forcing amidst a still-amply-saturated environment to
initiate a few SHRA that may find their way into far W/NW parts
of the ILN FA by the afternoon. This disorganized activity,
which is sprouting now upstream off to our NW, will slowly drift
to the SE closer to the local area by early Thursday afternoon,
so have added a slight chance PoPs in EC IN, WC OH, and parts
of the Tri-State to account for this potential. Even with this
being said, most locales will remain dry through the short term
period, with the best potential for a few rogue SHRA near/W of
I-75.
Temps rebound into the lower/mid 80s before dipping into the
mid/upper 60s Thursday night with slightly more humid air
attempting to move back into the area from the W through the
short term period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday
ahead of a disturbance pushing across the Great Lakes. Mainly dry
weather is expected for Saturday under high pressure. Additional
weak disturbances interacting with an unstable airmass may trigger a
few storms Sunday through Tuesday. A greater threat for showers and
storms may exist on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to be
the focus for convective development.
Temperatures remaining quite warm will start with highs in the mid
and upper 80s on Friday. Readings will rise to the upper 80s to low
90s Saturday and Sunday, then to the low and mid 90s Monday and
Tuesday. Some locations could see apparent temps around 100. A
retreat to the low 80s to low 90s is indicated for Wednesday as the
cold front moves in.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A blanket of borderline MVFR/IFR CIGs remains draped across the
local area for the start of the TAF period, even as some breaks
in the cloud cover attempt to work E into the local area by/past
21z. There should be a slow clearing trend from W to E between
about 21z-03z, with central OH sites of KCMH/KLCK the last to
see conditions return to VFR.
Within the blanket of stratocu are patches of -DZ and very light
SHRA, which continue to intermittently impact KDAY/KILN with
MVFR/IFR VSBYs. Do expect that this activity may begin to
shift/pivot a bit more to the E past 21z, impacting KCMH/KLCK
for late afternoon into early evening before dry/VFR conditions
return area-wide by/shortly after 00z.
Gusty WNW winds continue about the area, with sustained winds of
15-20kts and gusts to 25-30kts at times. The pressure gradient
will begin to relax slowly through the first few hours of the
TAF period, with gusts tapering off from W to E in the several
hour period around 00z. Winds will go to generally 5kts or
less (or even light/VRB) past 06z, which may help promote the
development of some river valley BR/FG at KLUK. Did not have
confidence to go below IFR VSBYs at the site for now, but do
think there is the potential for LIFR or lower VSBYs with some
FG in the several hours around daybreak at KLUK.
There will be some patchy ISO/SCT convective/SHRA
redevelopment, initially off to the W of the local area,
Thursday afternoon, which may migrate close to KCVG/KLUK/KDAY by
00z Friday. COnfidence was too low at this juncture to even add
a VC, but it is mentioned here for awareness purposes.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 10, 2:53 PM EDT---------------
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