PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 5:54 PM CDT342
FXUS63 KPAH 012254
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
554 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Prolonged duration extreme heat continues with an Excessive
Heat Warning now in effect thru 8 PM CDT Saturday.
- There are multiple consecutive days of air temperatures
forecast to reach near or exceed the century mark; also there
may be several record warm overnight low temperatures in the
mid 70s possible. These forecast high and low temperatures
are a good 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms.
- Next rain chances keep getting lower and pushed back, now
coming in late Saturday into Saturday night with just a 10-30%
chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch where isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
Updated Aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
The H5 High centers over the PAH FA this mid week in the 596 DM
range. The 1018 MB surface reflected high sits just to its east
and offers a steady-state of warm air advection. Both ridges
shift gradually to the east with time, holding their ample
strength/impacts on our PAH FA heading into the holiday weekend,
with peak extremity impacts coming the next 48-72 hours.
Extended modeling continues to push back/dwindle next pcpn
chances, and these chances do start to impact the ridge
strength/temps by the end of the day Saturday, so the headline
was not extended beyond then for now. It is possible some parts
of the CWA, namely the east, will see the headline numbers back
off their peaks by then, but will still near/meet the prolonged
duration thresholds. By Sunday-Monday, we should see that east-
to-west cooldown translate its way back below the century HI
mark, even as our pcpn chances dwindle again as the upper ridge
re-orients in a little flatter fashion over the southern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026
The TAFs are VFR. Winds from the S-SW will relax to 3-5 kts,
then increase after 14z to 6-10 kts from the SW. Skies will be
mostly clear overnight, followed by FEW-SCT high-based CU
developing after 14z with bases between 6-10kft.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ILZ075>078-
080>094.
MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ076-086-
087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ Saturday for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 1, 5:54 PM CDT---------------
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